Tag: politics

It was an amazing US election to see Donald Trump defy expectations and win the US Presidency over Hillary Clinton.  Congratulations to him and his campaign team.  His election will definitely be something that political scientists will be talking about for decades to come.  By the way I thought his acceptance speech was really good:

“Now it’s time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans,” he said.

To countries around the world, Trump said, “While we will always put America’s interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone.”

“All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility, partnership, not conflict,” he said.  [Yonhap]

Here is what South Korean President Park Geun-hye had to say about the election of Donald Trump:

The commander-in-chief made the remarks during a briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) session after Republican Donald Trump won the White House in a hard-fought race against Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

“Given the United States is our ally and that the South Korea-U.S. relationship has a great impact on our diplomacy, security and economy, I think we need to extensively explore ways to develop close relations with the incoming Trump administration,” she said.

“In light of the grave situation in which North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats are growing day by day, I call on you to establish cooperative ties with the incoming U.S. administration early in the stage of the government transition,” she added.  [Yonhap]

So what does Donald Trump’s victory mean for the people of South Korea who were deeply against the election of Trump?  Here are my quick thoughts on the biggest areas that the ROK should expect possible impacts on:

• USFK Cost Sharing: Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to see US allies pay more to support US forces.  To keep this campaign promise I would expect that Trump will ask that South Korea pay more for the upkeep of US forces.  Currently the ROK pays about 50% for upkeep while Japan pays about 75%.  I would expect that South Korea will be asked to pay a number closer to what Japan pays.

• US-ROK Free Trade Agreement: Due to Trump’s election victory the Korean stock market has tanked.  The market tanked because of fears that Trump will want to renegotiate the US-Korea Free Trade Agreement:A key concern is Trump’s “America first” position that includes a preference for trade protectionism.“The market will inevitably face a short-term adjustment if Trump wins,” said Kim Ji-na, a fixed income analyst at IBK Securities. “There’s even a possibility that the 1,900 barrier could fall as Trump’s victory will only raise instability and bring about policy risks.”The bigger concern is that Korea’s economy, which has been facing tough times due to shrinking exports, will suffer heavily.“The Trump victory will not only act as a potential risk for the Korean market but also the global economy,” said Hwang Na-young, a Woori Finance Research Institute researcher. “Once Trump and the Republicans take over, most of the major policies of the Barack Obama years will be reversed: repealing Obamacare, huge tax cuts, easing of financial regulations and a preference for fossil fuel.

  “Major changes are likely in regards to trade policies as protectionism deepens on top of an isolationist approach to diplomatic polices.”  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

  Here are some facts and figures about Korea-US trade from the Joong Ang Ilbo article:

• I would be surprised if Trump makes it a priority to go after the US-ROK FTA.  Considering the amount of manufacturing jobs brought to the US from Korean car manufacturers it seems the US-ROK FTA is a deal he would want to keep in place.  I think his immediate focus will be on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreements (NAFTA) which he has been highly critical of.

• North Korea Nuclear Issue: I don’t see Trump wanting to make any nuclear agreement with Kim Jong-un considering the country’s past track record of violating the agreements.  What I do think he will do is push for more sanctions against Chinese banks and businesses in an effort to pressure the Chinese government to reign in North Korea:
  

  Trump also identified North Korea as a problem for China, not the U.S.

  “I would get China to make that guy disappear, in one form or another, very quickly,” Trump said in February on the CBS TV program “This Morning.”

  “China has absolute control of North Korea. They won’t say it, but they do. And they should make that problem disappear.” [Korea Times]

• Immigration: Any Koreans living illegally in the US and hoping for amnesty should probably forget about that idea happening anytime soon.  With that said I do think ironically that with a President Trump an immigration reform deal is more likely because he will try and cut a deal that is not blanket amnesty, but at the same time provides a process for foreign workers to be sponsored to work in the US.  This would reduce illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border and possibly allow him to say he does not need to fully build his famous wall.

Conclusion: So those are my quick thoughts on what the election of Donald Trump means for South Korea.  I think the biggest impact is that the ROK should expect to pay more for the upkeep of USFK.  If not then Trump may begin relooking the US-ROK FTA which South Korea has much more to lose.  Does anyone else have any other areas that they foresee that a President Trump will have a significant impact on in South Korea over the next four years?  If so please share your opinions in the comments section.

The NY Post recently reported that Hillary Clinton had been allowing her maid to print out classified emails for her.  What really puzzled me though was this passage where the maid had access to a SCIF:

Santos also had access to a highly secure room called an SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility) that diplomatic security agents set up at Whitehaven, according to FBI notes from an interview with Abedin.

From within the SCIF, Santos — who had no clearance — “collected documents from the secure facsimile machine for Clinton,” the FBI notes revealed.

Just how sensitive were the papers Santos presumably handled? The FBI noted Clinton periodically received the Presidential Daily Brief — a top-secret document prepared by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies — via the secure fax.  [NY Post]

Unless you are in the military or work with classified information in the government I don’t think most people realize how significant this is.  How did the maid have access to a SCIF?  How did she even get in?  I could only imagine what would happen to a servicemember who brought a random janitor for example into a military SCIF and let them run around and grab documents.

The Kims are the third most disliked world leaders amongst both dems and republicans pic.twitter.com/yfmgeHD6nX

— Sokeel Park (@Sokeel) November 5, 2016

When you go to UC-Berkley I guess everyone is supposed to find something to protest, even if the protest means nothing to the vast majority of Americans; I did get a laugh out of the below sign though:

Korean students at the University of California, Berkeley, are furious at the political scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and her confidant Choi Soon-sil.

Thirty Korean students from the U.S. school on Tuesday denounced Park and her administration for not taking full responsibility for the deepening democratic crisis.

They are the first Korean students studying at American universities to hold a protest rally over the scandal.

The students read a statement in Korean and English that said: “As students of Korean heritage, we are furious to find out about the recent political scandal known as ‘Park-Choi Gate.’ To restore democracy in South Korea, we demand President Park, her administration and her party assume full responsibility.

“We are furious. We, as South Koreans, are furious to witness such a collection of criminal events taking place in a democratic country.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I have to wonder if they are concerned about “a collection of criminal events in a democratic country” have they been holding any protests against Hillary Clinton who’s passing of classified information over insecure email may not have been to a Shaman, but is the same issue, which also includes the issue of improper donations to each President’s respective foundations which is also both being investigated.

With this decision South Korea effectively has two Presidents, one that handles domestic affairs and one for international affairs:

Prime Minister-designate Kim Byong-joon, if approved by parliament, will take control of domestic affairs, presidential aides said Wednesday, indicating President Park Geun-hye will take a back seat in running the country.

Their remarks presaged the introduction of a power-sharing governance structure in which the president takes charge of external affairs such as defense and foreign policy, with the premier calling all the shots on internal matters.

In a move to assuage public outrage over an influence-peddling scandal involving her close confidante, Park nominated Kim, policy advisor to late liberal President Roh Moo-hyun, and two Cabinet ministers. But opposition parties immediately called on her to cancel what they called “unilateral” nominations.

“(The designation of Kim) means that (Park) will virtually take a back seat (in running the country),” a source told Yonhap News Agency, declining to be named. “Nominee Kim will be the chief executive in charge of managing internal affairs.”

After completing a personnel overhaul of her secretariat, Park is expected to publicly explain her decision to delegate part of her executive power to the new prime minister, a source said.

“As soon as President Park openly confirms the authority of Prime Minister-designate Kim, it is fair to say we will have two presidents,” the official said over the phone.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but of course the opposition parties are not happy about this hand over of power because they likely want to drag out this scandal as long as possible.

Due to the Choi scandal the Saenuri Party name seems to be quite radioactive for anyone thinking of running for Korea’s next President to include even Ban Ki-moon:

The political firestorm threatening the presidency of Park Geun-hye is now jeopardizing longtime frontrunner UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s chance in next year’s presidential race.

According to Realmeter’s latest poll, announced on Monday, Ban was supported as the next president by 20.9 percent in the fourth week of October, down by 1.3 percentage points from the previous week.

Moon Jae-in, former chairman of the Minjoo Party of Korea, who was defeated by President Park in the 2012 race, was ranked second with 20.3 percent, up by 1.4 percentage points.

While Ban managed to remain the frontrunner for 13 consecutive weeks, the 0.6-percentage-point gap against Moon is within a margin of error.

Ban has never formally declared his bid, but Park loyalists in the Saenuri Party have enthusiastically expressed their desire to recruit him as their presidential candidate.

His tenure at the United Nations ends at the end of this year, and Ban said in September that he will return to Korea in January and address the people.

The latest poll was conducted from Monday to Friday of last week, and President Park and the Saenuri Party’s plummeting support was reflected in Ban’s popularity in the aftermath of the corruption scandal involving Park’s friend, Choi Soon-sil.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

You can read more at the link.

The more I read about Choi Soon-sil the more I realize she is basically President Park’s Huma Abedin, but she has no official government position.  Fortunately for Huma Abedin if she ever has to show up for questioning by the FBI I doubt they would allow a media circus like this to occur:

The 60-year-old’s appeared at the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office a little over a day after she returned from Europe, where she had been residing for nearly two months.

“I am so sorry,” she told reporters before entering the prosecutors’ office. “I have committed a deadly sin. Please forgive me.”

Her lawyer Lee Kyung-jae later said she was trying to express her feelings, adding her statements cannot be deemed as holding any legal meaning.

“She deeply regrets the fact that she caused such a huge confusion,” he told reporters in front of the Seoul High Prosecutors’ Office. “She thinks she should receive due punishment if there was any (violation of law).”

As she got out of a black sedan in black clothes, covering her face with a black hat and a scarf, some hundreds of reporters who had been waiting since early morning surrounded her. It was the first time she appeared in public after the scandal surfaced.

Some citizens engaged in surprise protests as she showed up, chanting and picketing “Down with Park Geun-hye!” and “Arrest Choi Soon-sil!”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the usual suspects from the Korean left such as the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions has given up protesting the THAAD deployment and moved on to the Choi Soon-shil issue that seems to have more traction with the Korean public:

Thousands of citizens took to the streets in downtown Seoul on Saturday, demanding President Park Geun-hye step down, in protest of an ongoing influence-peddling scandal surrounding her confidante.

Groups, including the country’s largest umbrella labor union, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), which had been at odds with the president on a host of issues in the past, jointly held a candlelight rally in Cheonggye Stream Square.

About 20,000 took part in the demonstration, according to the organizers, although the police put the number closer at 9,000, with 8,000 officers mobilized to deal with contingencies.

Police and politicians have been casting watchful eyes on the rally as it was the first mass movement after the president apologized in a nationally televised address over allegations raised against her confidante, Choi Soon-sil.

In the apology delivered Tuesday, Park admitted to the leak of dozens of presidential speeches to Choi before they were made public, acknowledging her ties.

Still, the scandal has only been snowballing as a series of media reports claimed Choi’s possible intervention in other state affairs, including some related to sensitive policy issues. Choi holds no governmental post.

A 24-year-old college student, who asked not to be named, said he joined a demonstration as he was “so frustrated and disappointed” about the latest scandal.

Others like Chris from Australia who works as an English teacher here said it seemed very meaningful that the public came out to send a message to the government. He asked for his last name not to be used for privacy reasons.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Australian quoted in the article may want to stay out of Korean political affairs because foreigners have been deported before in the past for this.

Good lord: video of Kirk's racist comment to Tammy Duckworth even worst than the transcript. pic.twitter.com/ETLc6X11TK

— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) October 28, 2016

President Park’s long-time friend, Choi Soon-shil who is at the center of the current political influence scandal in South Korea has spoken out about the issue from a hotel in Germany:

Choi, who has known the president for some 40 years, is the fifth daughter of Park’s late mentor Choi Tae-min, a leader of a questionable religious group who died in 1994. Observers said Park developed a friendship with the Choi family after her mother and then-first lady Yook Young-soo was assassinated in 1974.

The South Korean public has been casting watchful eyes on the scandal, with some even claiming that the case may have a religious connection, although Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn ruled out such assumptions. Choi’s father reportedly founded a religion in the 1970s that combined Buddhist, Christian and indigenous faith practices.

“Choi is ready to receive punishment if investigations reveal any lawbreaking activities,” he said, adding Choi has no intention to flee or hide.

She, however, asked for “mercy” concerning her daughter through the lawyer. She earlier said in the interview that she traveled overseas to “protect” the daughter, who is also embroiled in controversy on speculations that she was unfairly accepted to Seoul-based Ewha Womans University. Some of the university’s students argued that Choi’s daughter received relatively higher grades compared to her actual achievements.

The emotionally appealing remark by Choi’s legal representatives came amid mounting anger among the South Korean public.

Reflecting the sentiment, local pollster Gallup Korea said Friday that Park’s approval rating was at 17 percent from Tuesday to Thursday this week, marking an 8 percentage point drop from a seven-day period earlier. It marks the lowest rating since she took office and a decrease for the sixth consecutive week.

A whopping 74 percent of the respondents were negative about Park’s achievements in state affairs, soaring 10 percentage points on-week.  [Yonhap]

You can read the rest at the link, but it looks like President Park is continuing the trend of South Korean presidents entering office with high approval ratings and then leaving office with incredibly low ratings.