This is something ROK Heads have known for quite some time, but the media is catching up:
People watch a TV screen showing a file image of a ground test of North Korea’s rocket engine during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Monday.
For Trump, keeping the status quo would be the best policy at this point because any future deal with North Korea will be criticized within the U.S. as a “bad deal,” according to Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies of Kyungnam University.
“After North Korea gave up Yongbyon, the U.S. still did not give up on sanctions. If the U.S. were to make concessions in any future deal, it will be criticized domestically. Trump considers it best to maintain the current state of tension without any additional agreement. This is the most conducive to keeping up Trump’s case that North Korea has not tested missiles or launched an ICBM,” the professor told The Korea Times, Monday. “If North Korea launches an ICBM, it could affect the U.S. election. But it will not be easy for North Korea to do this, although it has been testing engines and so forth.”
Another analyst explained that Kim could be aiming to pressure Trump ahead of the U.S. election, but was negative about an ICBM test in the near future.
Another play straight out of the North Korean provocation playbook:
At the Ministry of National Defense on Thursday, Maj. Gen. Jeon Dong-jin of the JCS gives a briefing on two unidentified projectiles fired by North Korea. [YONHAP]
South Korea’s military on Thursday confirmed it had completed an operation to evict a North Korean merchant ship from its waters some 17 hours after the vessel crossed to the southern side of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) the previous day.
However, it took South Korean military authorities nearly six hours to realize the vessel was a North Korean merchant ship sailing on the southern side of the NLL, the de facto maritime border between the two Koreas in the Yellow Sea.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Wednesday that the 500-ton merchant ship crossed the NLL, northwest of Baengnyeong Island, at around 6:40 a.m. Wednesday.
At one point, the South Korean Navy fired warning shots after the vessel did not respond to multiple warnings it had issued to immediately leave the NLL, in accordance with protocol.
On Thursday, the JCS confirmed that the South Korean Navy guided the merchant ship out of South Korean waters and completed the operation around 11:30 p.m. that night.
Another typical North Korean playbook play here with conducting a test firing that corresponds with a U.S. holiday:
A projectile mounted on a super-large multiple rocket launcher is launched from North Korea’s western region toward the East Sea on Oct. 31, 2019, in this photo released by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) the next day. According to the KCNA, the North successfully tested a super-large multiple rocket launcher, verifying the “perfection” of the weapons system.
North Korea fired two projectiles from what is presumed to be a super-large multiple rocket launcher on Thursday, South Korea’s military said, in the latest in a series of military moves amid stalled denuclearization talks with the United States.
The projectiles were fired from Yeonpo in the country’s eastern South Hamgyong Province into the waters off the east coast at around 4:59 p.m., the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a release.
Both flew around 380 km, reaching a maximum altitude of around 97 km, and were fired within a 30-second interval, the JCS added.
You can read more at the link, but this is all just more of the pressure campaign that the Kim regime is putting on the Trump administration to get them to give in to their demands to drop sanctions.
Yes it is probably a good idea to plan for a provocation cycle after the New Year because it is does not appear any denuclearization deal is close to being negotiated:
Chung Eui-yong (C), head of Cheong Wa Dae’s national security office, makes opening remarks, with Chief of Staff Noh Young-min (L) and Kim Sang-jo, the top presidential official for policy, standing next to him at the Cheong Wa Dae press center on Nov. 10, 2019.
The United States is trying hard to coax North Korea into restarting nuclear talks, as South Korea is also quite “serious” about the year-end deadline set by Pyongyang, a top Cheong Wa Dae official said Sunday.
The North has emphasized that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump should change tack and put forward fresh offers based on a “new calculation method” by the end of this year or face an end to the already troubled dialogue process itself.
Regarding the North’s own deadline, “The South Korean government is also keeping an eye on (relevant situations) quite seriously,” Chung Eui-yong, head of the presidential security office, told reporters. (…….)
South Korea is also coordinating closely with the U.S. so that denuclearization talks can proceed smoothly, getting “various contingency plans” ready for use, he said without elaborating.
The South Korean government’s position is that security conditions on the peninsula should never return to the level before 2017.
You can read more at the link, but I would not be surprised if the Moon administration’s response to a North Korean provocation would be to unilaterally violate sanctions to pay off the Kim regime and say it is for humanitarian reasons.
Marine Corps chief pays tribute to marines killed in N.K. shellingSouth Korea’s Marine Corps Commander, Lt. Gen. Jun Jin-goo, burns incense in front of the graves of two marines killed in North Korea’s 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island on the western sea border as he attends a memorial at the National Cemetery in Daejeon, central South Korea, on Nov. 23, 2018. (Yonhap)
North Korea seems to be sending a message that they are growing impatient waiting for the sanctions to be dropped:
In this undated photo released Friday, Nov. 16, 2018, by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, listens to a military official as he inspects a weapon testing at the Academy of National Defense Science, North Korea. Kim observed the successful test of a newly developed high-tech tactical weapon.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un observed the successful test of an unspecified “newly developed ultramodern tactical weapon,” state media reported Friday, in an apparent bid to apply pressure on the United States and South Korea.
It didn’t appear to be a test of a nuclear device or a long-range missile with the potential to target the U.S. A string of such tests last year had many fearing war before the North turned to engagement and diplomacy. Still, any mention of weapons testing could influence the direction of stalled diplomatic efforts spearheaded by Washington and aimed at ridding the North of its nuclear weapons.
The North hasn’t publicly tested any weapons since November 2017, but in recent days Pyongyang reportedly expressed anger at U.S.-led international sanctions and ongoing small-scale military drills between South Korea and the United States.
Earlier this month, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry warned it could bring back its policy of bolstering its nuclear arsenal if it doesn’t receive sanctions relief.
“It’s North Korea-style coercive diplomacy. North Korea is saying ‘If you don’t listen to us, you will face political burdens,'” said analyst Shin Beomchul of Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. [Reuters]
You can read more at the link, but of course the Moon administration in South Korea is playing down this weapons test:
North Korea’s test of an unspecified high-tech weapon should not be interpreted as a sign that the regime is abandoning denuclearization talks with the United States, a senior South Korean official said Thursday.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspected the “successful” test of a “high-tech tactical weapon” at a national defense institute, state media reported early Friday (local time).
It marked the first such inspection by the leader following his viewing of an intercontinental ballistic missile launch in November 2017.
“It’s clearly something that we should watch carefully,” the senior government official who was visiting Washington told reporters on condition of anonymity. “But it’s still early to view this as a change of heart in terms of the North Koreans’ intention to have denuclearization talks or its intention to resolve the issue of regime security and improve ties with the U.S. through talks.” [Yonhap]
The big question remains what was tested? My guess would be is that they tested their multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) called the KN-09.
This photo from the North Korean daily Rodong Sinmun on March 4, 2016, shows a test fire of the country’s new multiple rocket launcher.
They last test fired their MLRS in 2016 and it reportedly has a range out to 200 kilometers. Maybe their new “ultramodern” weapon is an MLRS with greater range? Regardless a 200 kilometer range already threatens Osan Airbase and Camp Humphreys, the two major US military installations in South Korea.
North Korea’s propaganda outlet called for the total suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States on Friday, in response to the allies’ decision to delay them until after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
The North’s website Uriminzokkiri said that dialogue and a “war rehearsal” cannot go together, calling the exercises the source of catastrophe for the Korean Peninsula.
“They should totally stop the military drills, not just delay them,” it said in a commentary. [Korea Herald]
You can read more at the link, but this all goes back to North Korea’s strategy of separating the ROK from the US. Ending the ROK-US military drills using nuclear coercion is one of the ways they are trying to do this.
After the completion of the Olympics, if the delayed Key Resolve exercise is not cancelled, the Kim regime can then use it as an excuse to start another provocation cycle. That is why I fully expect there will be another launch in the spring timeframe. What else that won’t be surprising is that all the usual suspects in the western media will be out blaming President Trump for the return of the provocation cycle.
Here is the latest call for President Trump to not visit the DMZ:
Sue Mi Terry
North Korea could feel threatened if U.S. President Donald Trump visits the demilitarized zone on the inter-Korean border next month, a U.S. expert said Friday.
Trump could include a trip to the buffer zone dividing South and North Korea when he visits Seoul from Nov. 7-8, according to news reports. There are concerns it could provoke Pyongyang amid high tensions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
“They’re seeing almost everything as a threat,” Sue Mi Terry, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, said during a discussion on North Korea.
She noted that Trump has called North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a “Rocket Man” on a suicide mission and threatened to “totally destroy” the country if necessary.
“They already see him as a very provocative person,” she said. “Anything that he does will be continually seen that way.”
Terry voiced strong opposition to the use of military action against North Korea, saying it could have “catastrophic consequences” for the 20 million people living in Seoul.
“I think North Korea will retaliate if there’s a military strike,” she said. “In this ‘track 2’ meeting I had with North Koreans, they emphasized that they didn’t go through this level of pain that they had gone through to acquire nuclear weapons — spending millions of dollars — just to be able to, to paraphrase their own words: ‘We’re not just going to perish without being able to use them if we think the attack for regime change is coming.'” [Yonhap]
Ms. Terry is a smart person, but I don’t understand her perspective on this. If President Trump is going to say something provocative during his trip that is going to upset the Kim regime it doesn’t matter if it happens at Panmunjom or during his planned speech to the National Assembly.
As far as her view of being against military action I disagree with. First of all, I have not heard Trump calling for regime change. President Trump’s comments about totaling destroying North Korea were made in the context of the US or its allies having to defend itself from a North Korean attack.
Secondly there is this drum beat that any military action against North Korea will lead to the destruction of Seoul which I believe is not accurate. In my opinion if the US conducted a limited strike against for example their missile manufacturing facilities, this would not lead to the destruction of Seoul that would potentially kill millions of people. The Kim regime knows destroying Seoul means a regime change war they don’t want.
I believe the Kim regime will respond, but in a more limited fashion that doesn’t lead to full scale war. Some examples are a limited artillery barrage or ballistic missile attack against US military targets. A terrorism attack within South Korea or against USFK personnel. There are many other things the North Koreans could do in response that does not trigger a full war. After their response the Kim regime can turn to the Chinese and the Russians to help them justify their response to the limited US strike to stop a full scale war from happening.
I think people get to fixated on these holidays because in the past there have been plenty of provocations that were not tied to any North Korean holiday:
North Korea celebrated the founding anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, Tuesday, without carrying out any military provocations.
But the South Korean military said it is continuously monitoring and tracking any developments in the North as the regime there could commit a large-scale provocation at any time.
“We are maintaining a thorough readiness posture in preparation for North Korea’s possible provocations,” said Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) spokesman Army Col.Roh Jae-cheon, refusing to elaborate further.
An official from Cheong Wa Dae also told reporters the North was capable of firing a missile at any time, but currently there were no signs of an imminent launch, such as fueling activities. [Korea Times]
