Tag: provocations

In my opinion proclamation like this to the media are unhelpful because it is almost creating an expectation of Kim Jong-un to do something or appear weak for not conducting a provocation:

North Korea is likely planning something very provocative around Columbus Day next week, which happens to fall the day before the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean communist party, a top CIA official warned on Wednesday.

“We are concerned…that risk exists at any time on the Korean Peninsula,” said Yong Suk Lee, deputy assistant director of the CIA’s Korea Mission Center, while speaking at a conference at the George Washington University in Washington, D.C. “I told my own staff, October 10 is the Korean Workers Party founding day. That’s Tuesday in North Korea, but that’s Monday — Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. — so stand by your phones.”

“North Korea is a political organism that thrives on confrontation,” Lee added.  [Newsweek]

You can read more at the link, but it has been quiet recently and it seems like we should not be encouraging the Kim regime to break the quiet to conduct more provocations.

It seems like every month now there is at least one North Korean provocation so why would October be any different?:

North Korea could carry out provocative acts in October when the country marks the anniversaries of its party’s foundation and a former ruler’s ascent to power, and China opens a key party meeting, experts said Sunday.

North Korea has used important national occasions as pretexts for military provocations and a show of force.

South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae has recently raised the possibility that North Korea may launch a provocation on Oct. 10, the 72nd founding anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK).  [Korea Herald]

You can read more at the link, but in the article there is speculation that the Kim regime could use October 4th as a date to launch a missile because it is the 10-year anniversary of when former President Roh Moo-hyun met with Kim Jong-il in North Korea.  The current ROK President Moon Jae-in was Roh’s chief of staff at the time.  If Kim Jong-un really wants to make a point to President Moon that reconciliation is not going to happen on the South’s terms then a provocation on that date would be a way of doing that.

If the North Koreans do decide to commit a Chuseok holiday provocation the US and ROK military say they are ready:

The military is to remain on high alert against possible provocations from North Korea during the Chuseok holiday.

A military official said Saturday that troops are maintaining a bolstered defense posture as the North can carry out provocations at any time.

South Korean and U.S. forces are known to be closely observing any moves by the North Korean military using cutting-edge surveillance and reconnaissance assets in order to respond immediately in case of a provocation.

Authorities believe Pyongyang could engage in another major provocative act in the near future.

It’s speculated the regime could launch a ballistic missile around October tenth, which marks the founding anniversary of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party.   [KBS World Radio]

Reports today are saying that missiles from the Sanum-dong missile plant are currently on the move.  I guess we will see what happens in the next few days.

So what is South Korean President Moon Jae-in going to do after this latest provocation?  Just last month he said a red line for him would be if North Korea developed a nuclear weapon that could be outfitted on an ICBM and that is what the Kim regime is claiming they have done:

North Korea said Sunday that it has successfully conducted a test of a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded into its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what could be the most powerful detonation.

In an “important” announcement, North Korea said that it carried out the sixth nuclear test at 12:00 p.m. (Pyongyang Time), calling it a “perfect” success.

The announcement came hours after an artificial earthquake with a 5.7 magnitude was detected near North Korea’s nuclear site in the northeastern area.  [Yonhap]

Here is what Moon Jae-in’s response is to crossing a “red line”, more sanctions:

South Korea strongly condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test Sunday, vowing to push for fresh and the most powerful sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to completely isolate the communist state.

“President Moon Jae-in said the country will never allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” Moon’s key security adviser Chung Eui-yong said at a press briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held earlier in the day.  [Yonhap]

The Japanese Prime Minister’s word are in line with Moon’s in regards to taking North Korea to the UN Security Council:

The nuclear test was confirmed by the Japanese government, which said the North had conducted the blast, but criticism of the test was rife around the globe.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe slammed the test as “absolutely unacceptable” and vowed a tough response at the United Nations.  [Japan Times]

Some how I doubt the Kim regime is impressed by threats of taking them to the UN Security Council.  I guess we will see if the nuclear test will be enough to get the ROK government to move the blockade preventing the installment of the remaining four THAAD launchers in Seongju.

It appears this and other issues are reaching a boiling point with President Trump who heavily criticized President Moon over Twitter:

South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2017

It appears that President Trump is about to put significant pressure on South Korea over the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement despite the nuclear test:

On trade, the president’s top economic advisers remain deeply divided over a possible withdrawal from the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as negotiators from both countries struggle to rewrite the five-year-old deal.

In recent days, a frustrated Mr. Trump has pushed his staff to take bold action against a host of governments, including the one in Seoul, that he has accused of unfair trade practices. But many of his more moderate advisers, including the chairman of the National Economic Council, Gary D. Cohn, believe that such a move could prompt a trade war that could hurt the United States economy.

An industry publication, Inside U.S. Trade, first reported late Friday that the administration was considering withdrawing from the treaty as early as next week.

“Discussions are ongoing, but we have no announcements at this time,” a White House spokeswoman said in an email.

But Mr. Trump, asked during a trip to the Gulf Coast on Saturday whether he was talking with his advisers about the trade deal, said: “I am. It’s very much on my mind.”

The idea of potentially withdrawing seems to have been prompted by the breakdown in negotiations between South Korean officials and the United States Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, an American official with knowledge of the situation said.  [New York Times]

I think a country that should be concerned about US economic retaliation is China if President Trump follows through on a threat to cut all trade with nations doing business with North Korea:

In recent days, the president has said more sanctions, coupled with implied and explicit threats of military action, would motivate Pyongyang to change its behavior.

The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that he planned to draft a new sanctions package that would cut economic ties with anyone who did business with North Korea.

“There’s a lot we can do to cut them off economically, much more than we’ve done,” Mr. Mnuchin said, speaking on “Fox News Sunday.” He called Pyongyang’s actions “unacceptable” and stressed the need for stronger steps.

Mr. Trump went so far on Sunday as to threaten to stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea,” an extremely unlikely prospect that, if carried out, would have cataclysmic consequences for the global economy. China is just one of the dozens of countries that trade with the North.  [New York Times]

With 90% of trade into North Korea going through China it is pretty obvious the only way for sanctions to work is to focus on China.  However, the consequences of an embargo on Chinese made products would have significant repercussions on the US economy until manufacturers could reestablish product lines in other countries.  Because of this it seems the sanctions on China need to be incremental to give manufacturers enough time to move out of China.

The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2017

Here is what China had to say about the nuclear test:

China urged North Korea to stop its “wrong” actions, after the reclusive said it had a successful test of hydrogen bomb that can be mounted onto its inter-continental ballistic missiles on Sunday.

In a statement on its website, China’s Foreign Ministry said China resolutely opposed and strongly condemned North Korea’s actions, and urged the country to respect U.N. Security Council resolutions.

North Korea “has ignored the international community’s widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China’s government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this,” the ministry said in the statement.  [Korea Times]

Judging by this statement it doesn’t appear China is prepared to do much against North Korea in response to the nuclear test.  The coming days should be interesting to see how the Trump administration responds.  It is pretty clear increased sanctions are going to happen, but will there be any military response as well?

The below article makes me wonder why PACOM issued a statement about the missile launches being failures before letting a full analysis be completed?:

North Korea fired three short-range missiles on Saturday — all successful — despite earlier reports suggesting failure, according to the U.S. military.

Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the projectiles fired from the North’s eastern coast flew about 155 miles. It said South Korea and U.S. militaries were analyzing the launch and didn’t immediately provide more details.

According to earlier reports, U.S. Pacific Command spokesman and Cmdr. David Benham suggested two North Korean missiles “failed in flight” while the third one had “blown up almost immediately.”

The U.S. Pacific Command has since revised its evaluation of the missile launch, now reporting no missile failures — in line with the South Korean military assessment.  [Fox News]

You can read more at the link, but this is what PACOM originally put out:

The U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) also said, “Initial assessment indicates three short-range ballistic missile launches.”

“The first and third missiles at 11:49 a.m. (Hawaii time) and 12:19 p.m. failed in flight,” the PACOM’s spokesman Cdr. David Benham said in an emailed statement. “The second missile launch at 12:07 p.m. appears to have blown up almost immediately.”  [Yonhap]

Fortunately it seems like no one is over reacting to this launch.  North Korea conducts test launches during almost every Key Resolve and Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercise.  If anything this test launch is far less provocative than what they have launched in the past considering it is being reported they are either long range rockets or short range missiles:

The office said that the projectiles are believed to be artillery rockets from a multiple-rocket launcher, while the U.S. military reaffirmed its assessment characterizing those as short-range ballistic missiles.

“As of now, the unidentified projectiles fired by the North today are presumed to be improved 300-mm artillery rockets from a multiple-rocket launcher,” Yoon Young-chan, senior presidential secretary for public relations, said in a statement issued after the NSC session.

However, the U.S. Pacific Command said the projectiles were apparently ballistic missiles.  [Korea Times]

Whatever they were rockets or missiles it really doesn’t matter because the strategic messaging the Kim regime is sending is that they can attack a South Korean island with missiles or rockets and follow it up with an amphibious invasion:

In a simulated attack on the South Korean border islands of Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong, North Korean planes hit targets as its multiple-missile launchers and self-propelled gun howitzers fired in salvo and shells hit unidentified North Korean islands.

Some of the North Korean special forces also parachuted into the islands and others landed by surprise using rubber boats. The simulated South Korean targets were later enveloped in flames, according to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but this is all situation normal on the Korean peninsula.

It looks like there is once again a path towards deescalation with North Korea:

North Korea has made no provocations since its July 28 test-firing of what it claimed was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), though it has more recently threatened to fire missiles toward Guam.

President Trump said Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has begun to “respect” Washington, suggesting his administration is taking a positive view on a possible thaw in U.S.-North Korea relations.

“I respect the fact that I believe he (Kim) is starting to respect us,” Trump said at a rally in Phoenix, Arizona, according to Bloomberg. “Maybe, probably not, something positive will come out of it.”

Earlier in the day, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said dialogue between the United States and North Korea could be possible in the “near future,” welcoming what he called the “restraint” the Kim regime had shown recently with its nuclear and missile programs.

“I think it is worth noting, we have had no missile launches or provocative acts on the part of, or provocative actions, on the part of North Korea since the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolution,” Tillerson said at the State Department.

“I am pleased to see that the regime in Pyongyang has demonstrated restraint. We hope this is the signal we have been looking for, that they are ready to restrain provocative acts. And perhaps we are seeing a pathway in the near future to having some dialogue.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link, but I would be some what surprised if they don’t fire at least a short range test missile into the Sea of Japan in response to the ongoing UFG military exercise.

I don’t think anyone with knowledge about North Korea’s capabilities even remotely thinks a conflict with North Korea would look anything like Iraq or Afghanistan:

Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor of Korean studies at The Fletcher School, Tufts University, said the rogue nation was “no Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan” and was more than capable of fighting back.

The comments come amid growing tensions between Kim Jong-un’s regime and Donald Trump, who vowed to meet any attack on the US territory of Guam with “fire and fury”.

Speaking to CNBC, the academic said: “North Korea has a need to test more in the continental ballistic missiles to conduct another nuclear test and I don’t think Kim Jong-un will be deterred by this strong rhetoric – even rhetorical bellicosity coming out of the Trump administration.

“The truth is, since the end of the Korean war more than 60 years ago, despite countless provocations and lethal attacks from the north, neither the US or South Korea has ever responded with military force.

“Why? For fear of escalation because we know North Korea has both the intent and the capability to hit back – they are no Iraq or Syria or Afghanistan, they will strike back and we don’t want to go there.”

Professor Lee also called on the US for the “proper enforcement” of financial sanctions on North Korea.  [Express-UK]

Professor Lee’s comments about not responding with military force is not quite accurate.  For example there has been many DMZ shootouts over the decades and most recently the ROK military fired 80 artillery shells back into North Korea during the 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korea.

The annual August North Korean provocation cycle that happens just about every year around the Ulchi Freedom Guardian US-ROK military exercise continues to escalate.  The latest is that the Kim regime is no longer happy attacking fish in the Sea of Japan with their ballistic missiles and are instead drawing up plans to attack the fish off of Guam:

North Korea said Thursday an operational plan targeting waters near Guam will be completed by mid-August and reported to leader Kim Jong-un for his final order, threatening to send four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missiles over Japan to land 30 to 40 kilometers (19 to 25 miles) away from the American island in the Western Pacific.

The North didn’t mention when the operation would be carried out, but said it would “keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S.” for cues. The statement was made in English by Kim Rak-gyom, commander of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) Strategic Force, and released via the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The more specific threat to Guam and its U.S. naval base came after U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday in New Jersey that North Korea will face “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if it continues to threaten the United States. The North relayed its Guam threat for the first time Wednesday through KCNA without any timeline.

The KPA is “seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic rockets,” the KCNA report read Thursday, adding that the operation was meant to send a “crucial warning” to the U.S. about its sanctions on the regime.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

I think Secretary of Defense Mattis has made the best statement for Kim Jong-un:

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Wednesday in Washington that Pyongyang should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the “end of its regime and the destruction of its people.”

I think that is the talking point the US government needs to repeat to North Korea as well as their ally China that any provocation on Guam will lead to the end of the Kim regime.

The Kim regime has welcomed the new ROK president the way they typically do by conducting a provocation:

North Korea launched a ballistic missile Sunday morning from a site north of Pyongyang, South Korea’s military said, as President Moon Jae-in immediately convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) to discuss the issue.

“North Korea fired an unidentified missile at around 5:27 a.m. today from an area in the vicinity of Kusong, North Pyongan Province,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a statement

The projectile flew some 700 kilometers, it said, adding it’s analyzing more details.

The flight distance suggests a success of the missile test, the North’s first military provocation since the inauguration of Moon last week.  [Yonhap]

The type of ballistic missile has not been disclosed yet, but PACOM has already said that it was not an ICBM.  However, the Japanese are calling this the highest fired missile they have seen yet from North Korea:

Japan’s Defense Ministry said the missile flew for about 30 minutes, reaching an altitude of more than 2,000 kilometers and was believed to have traveled some 800 kilometers before falling about 400 kilometers outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according to the Japan Times.

Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada was quoted as saying that the launch, which was likely conducted at a steep or “lofted” trajectory, could be of a “new type of ballistic missile.” It hit the highest-ever altitude recorded by Japan’s defense authority for a North Korean missile.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

At least one scientist thinks this is a new type of missile that has been tested:

“I don’t believe the missile test Sunday involved existing models, such Pukguksong-2 or Scud-ER, considering its flight distance was about 700 kilometers,” said Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the Institute for Far East Studies of Kyungnam University. “The test appears to be aimed at developing a new type of missile with an improved performance.”

David Wright, co-director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told the Associated Press that Sunday’s launch may have been of a new mobile, two-stage liquid-fueled missile that North Korea displayed during an April 15 military parade to mark that 105th anniversary of the birth of its founder Kim Il-sung

Wright estimated that the missile had a range of 4,500 kilometers if it travelled on a standard, instead of lofted, trajectory.  [Korea Times]

If the range of this missile is 4,500 kilometers that means it is not designed to strike South Korea or Japan which it already has SCUD and Nodong missiles to hit these two countries with.  Instead the only reason to develop a missile with this range would be to strike Guam which would be within its 4,500 kilometer maximum range since it is roughly 3,300 kilometers from North Korea:

This test may be a response to the fact that the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group is supposed to be in the Sea of Japan (East Sea) conducting exercises.

In response to the provocation the Chinese are urging all parties to show the typical “restraint” they always seem to put out after a North Korean provocation.  The United States is trying to play the Russians against the North Koreans after this test since the missile landed close to Russia:

Fox News reported that the White House said North Korea has been a “flagrant menace for far too long” and that Trump “cannot imagine that Russia is pleased” with the latest missile test because the missile landed closer to Russia than to Japan. U.S. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster also condemned the launch in a 25-minute phone call with his South Korean counterpart Kim Kwan-jin and agreed to combine forces towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.   [Joong Ang Ilbo]

I doubt Putin really cares, and then in South Korea new President Moon Jae-in wants North Korea to change its attitude if it wants negotiations:

During his first NSC meeting at Cheong Wa Dae, President Moon strongly condemned the launch, saying, “It was an apparent violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and also a serious challenge to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula as well as the international community.”

Moon said he found North Korea’s provocation regretful, citing that it came despite his speech to make full-pledged efforts to bring peace to the peninsula during his May 10 inauguration ceremony.

“I’m strongly warning North Korea, and at the same time, I find its reckless provocation deeply regretful.”

The president said he is open to resuming dialogue with North Korea, but added his government would deal sternly with the North’s provocations to ensure that the reclusive state does “not make a misjudgment.”

“We must show the North that dialogue will be possible only when it changes its attitude,” he said.  [Korea Times]

Good luck with that since people have been waiting decades for North Korea to change its attitude.  As this test proves, a new ROK President promising Sunshine Policy 2.0 is not going to change the nature of the Kim regime.

I wonder if this will still be the direction given to the ROK military after the Korean left likely wins the Presidency in May:

South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo on Wednesday instructed troops not to hesitate to take retaliatory actions in the event of a North Korea attack.

Inspecting a coastline guard post of the Army’s 32nd Infantry Division, Han stressed the need for “perfect” combat posture both on the front lines and in the rear.

“There shouldn’t be any disorder even by an inch in the military,” he said. “Any provocation from the North should not be tolerated.”

The minister urged the military to be fully ready for the completion of operations “on-the-spot” at a “decisive” time, citing the grim security conditions on the peninsula.  [Yonhap]

Long time Korea watchers may remember that the last time the Korean left held the presidency, ROK servicemembers who defended the nation against North Korean aggression were treated like criminals.  Hopefully these same policies are not enacted when the Korean left likely takes over this time.