I mostly agree with Victor Cha’s assessment, however I think they will conduct short-range missile firings during the Key Resolve exercise in March like they have historically done in the past. Larger provocations such as an ICBM or nuclear test I think will be done post-election in order to avoid helping elect a ROK conservative. Plus by the end of the ROK election period, North Korea will have a better idea of what the Trump administration’s policy toward North Korea will be:
Victor Cha
North Korea is exercising restraint from nuclear and missile tests to avoid galvanizing conservatives in South Korea ahead of a presidential election, and is certain to resume provocations once the leadership crisis in the South is resolved, a top U.S. expert on Korea said Tuesday.
The assessment from Victor Cha, a Georgetown University professor and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, breaks with more common perceptions that Pyongyang is holding off on action until the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump puts together its North Korea policy.
“Pyongyang carried out two (failed) medium-range ballistic missiles tests prior to President Trump’s election on October 15 and 20, 2016. The only reason they have not followed the election with an action, we believe, is because of the domestic political crisis in South Korea,” Cha said during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, referring to the North’s failed Musudan missile launches.
“That is, President Park Geun-hye’s political downfall and the potential for a progressive, pro-DPRK government coming to power in the South has complicated Pyongyang’s calculations as they do not want to take actions that might create ballast for the conservatives,” he said. “However, once this crisis of leadership in the South is resolved (or even before then), ballistic missile and nuclear tests are sure to follow.” [Yonhap]
This was actually good advice which so far the Kim regime has been following:
Robert Gallucci
A former chief U.S. nuclear negotiator with North Korea said he advised diplomats from Pyongyang to refrain from greeting a new U.S. administration with nuclear or missile tests when he met with them in Malaysia in October.
Robert Gallucci, who negotiated a now-defunct 1994 nuclear freeze deal with the North, held meetings in Kuala Lumpur on Oct. 21-22 with senior diplomats from North Korea, including Vice Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol and Deputy U.N. Ambassador Jang Il-hun.
“When I met North Korean representatives for Track II discussions in Kuala Lumpur, I took the opportunity to advise them that they should avoid greeting a new American administration with new nuclear or ballistic missile tests, or any aggressive moves towards the U.S. or its allies,” Gallucci said.
“I suggested that whomever the next president turned out to be, they would not appreciate such a greeting and would undoubtedly respond with appropriate vigor and certainly not with an inclination to negotiate any time soon,” he said in a statement prepared for a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing set for Tuesday. [Yonhap]
Here is what else Mr. Gallucci had to say about what other North Korea experts have been advocating for:
Gallucci said that the U.S. should not seek anything short of North Korea’s complete denuclearization, voicing concern that too many analysts are now arguing that all the U.S. needs is to stop the North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs from growing.
Seeking such a freeze is “unrealistic and dangerous,” he said.
Entering into negotiations with the North without the U.S. declaring its goal of a non-nuclear North Korea would “appear to have the United States legitimize the North’s nuclear weapons status, and thus increase the likelihood that before too long South Korea and then Japan would follow suit,” Gallucci said.
The way I look at it is that Gallucci wants the US to negotiate for something the North Koreans will never give up. What deal could the US possibly offer for the Kim regime to give up their nuclear weapons? I have not heard one person give a realistic option on what the incentive would be for the Kim regime to give up its nukes. This is like going into negotiations with the Taliban and asking them to give up radical Islam, that is how important the nuclear weapons are to the Kim regime. Nuclear weapons is something that legitimizes and assures regime survival, just like radical Islam is to the Taliban.
The North Koreans could conduct a provocation of some kind in honor of Kim Jong-il’s birthday, but I still tend to think the timing in March during the Key Resolve exercise makes the most sense for them to conduct a strategic provocation, but I guess we will see:
Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the central government complex in Seoul on Feb. 7, 2017. (Yonhap)
South Korea’s Acting President and Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn on Tuesday warned of North Korea’s possible strategic provocations ahead of the birthday of its late former leader next week, stressing the need for Seoul to maintain strong security cooperation with its ally Washington.
During a Cabinet meeting, Hwang also noted that U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis’ visit to Seoul last week reaffirmed the robust bilateral alliance and sent a “strong” warning to an increasingly provocative Pyongyang.
“North Korea’s threats of provocations — including its claim that it is in the closing phase of preparations to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile — are increasingly explicit,” Hwang said.
“Especially this month, which includes the 75th birthday of (former North Korean leader) Kim Jong-il, the likelihood of strategic provocations is higher than before,” he added. The late Kim’s birthday falls next Thursday. [Yonhap]
It does make me wonder if the Kim regime and the Mullahs in Iran coordinated their recent missile test in order to test the reaction of the Trump administration:
North Korea is expected to watch closely how the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump responds to Iran’s missile launch and what policy the new administration puts together on Pyongyang before it carries out its threatened missile test, a U.S. expert said Sunday.
“It has been my contention that N.K. would delay testing an ICBM or a nuclear test until they had a better read on the Trump administration. They will closely watch the U.S. response to Iran’s test,” Ken Gause, a senior North Korea analyst at CNA Corp. in Washington, told Yonhap News Agency. (…….)
The Trump administration has shown toughness on Iran’s missile test. The Treasury Department slapped fresh sanctions over the missile test. National Security Advisor Mike Flynn warned the U.S. was “officially putting Iran on notice.” Asked if he’s willing to consider a military option, Trump said Thursday that “Nothing is off the table.” [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I think if North Korea tries anything I think they would do it in March during the Key Resolve military exercise timeframe. They have historically launched their shorter range SCUDs during military exercises which I expect they would likely do again this year.
It looks like the North Koreans are willing to give some time to the incoming Trump administration:
Choe Sun-hui
A top North Korean diplomat is reported to have told her American counterparts at a meeting in Switzerland that the North will refrain from provocations until the Donald J. Trump administration’s North Korea policy is further developed.
According to Radio Free Asia on Wednesday, Choe Son-hui, director general of the U.S. Affairs Department of the North’s Foreign Ministry and a top envoy to the six-party talks, said at a meeting with her American counterparts in Geneva last month that the North “would not take action that might close the door before seeing what emerges.”
Choe reportedly told the U.S. delegation that she hopes the Trump administration will review its policy toward the North while keeping her statement in mind. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
However, she caveated her statement by saying this:
Yet, according to meeting records obtained by RFA, Choe reportedly said that should the South and the United States conduct a joint military drill, the North’s response will have to be “very tough.”
Seoul and Washington are scheduled to hold their annual Key Resolve and Foal Eagle military exercises in February.
I would think the last thing the North Koreans would want to do is create a provocation that would distract attention away from their great enemy Park Geun-hye being impeached and removed from office:
South Korea’s defense chief called on the military Thursday to remain vigilant as North Korea might carry out a provocation amid the ongoing political crisis involving President Park Geun-hye.
On Friday, 300 lawmakers from the ruling and opposition parties are set to vote on an impeachment bill against Park. The country has been engulfed by a massive corruption scandal involving Park and her close confidante since late October.
Defense Minister Han Min-koo made the comments during his visit to the 3rd Army headquarters, one of the country’s three field armies in charge of protecting Gyeonggi Province that surrounds Seoul from any military threats by North Korea. [Yonhap]
I don’t think we are going to see the North Koreans do anything serious until the whole President Park fiasco plays out. They are getting a propaganda coup out of this scandal and have a real chance of having a South Korean left wing politician favorable to North Korea elected as the next President. A serious provocation cycle could put all of this at risk:
In this photo, taken on Nov. 8, 2016, Thomas S. Vandal, commanding general of the Eighth Army, delivers a speech on security issues at a Seoul university. (Yonhap)
A top U.S. general here warned that North Korea could stage a provocation within two months to test the incoming U.S. administration or take advantage of political instability in Seoul.
Thomas S. Vandal, commander of the Eighth Army, made the remark in a luncheon meeting with senior reporters, citing the communist country’s track record of staging provocations in times of transition of power in Seoul and Washington.
Though there are no specific signs yet, he said, North Korea could raise military tension in an attempt to test President-elect Donald Trump, as Pyongyang has no idea of his policy toward the North.
He also said the North may also be tempted to provoke the South at a time Seoul is transfixed by a sprawling corruption scandal involving President Park Geun-hye and her close confidante. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I think the February/March timeframe when the next Key Resolve exercise happens the North Koreans will probably do there normal protests and rhetoric. However, I don’t expect them to do a serious provocation such as sinking a South Korean ship or launching an artillery strike on a border island like we have seen in the past.
North Korea has their typical provocation playbook and the US has its typical playbook in response with one of the plays being to fly a bomber from Guam over South Korea:
Two B-1B nuclear-capable strategic bombers of the U.S. Air Force flew over South Korea, Tuesday, in a show of force against North Korea that conducted its fifth nuclear test last week in defiance of global warnings.
The B-1B Lancers conducted a low-altitude flight over Osan Air Base, south of Seoul, around 10:00 a.m. after having flown from the Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. The aircraft is capable of carrying the largest payload of both guided and unguided weapons of any current American bombers.
One B-1B was escorted by four F-15Ks from South Korean Air Force, while the other was escorted by four F-16s from the U.S. Air Force during the flight. [Korea Times]
