It looks like the North Koreans could be up to no good again in the western islands:
South Korea’s military is on high alert for possible North Korean military provocations after the communist country increased the amount of weapons and troops on its western islands, government sources said Wednesday.
“North Korea has deployed weapons, surveillance assets and troops to its islands, Galdo and Arido, north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the Yellow Sea,” one government source said, asking not to be named. “Our (South Korean) military is mindful of the possibility of sudden provocations by the North in the region.”
The NLL is a de facto maritime border between the Koreas.
Possible provocations could include shelling attacks on South Korean warships or seizing South Korean fishing boats in the tense border areas, other sources indicated.
In response, the South Korean military has placed its troops on alert and increased its sea border surveillance using unmanned aerial vehicles, including Israel-made Heron drones, the sources said.
They said the North has recently installed military bunkers on the previously uninhabited Galdo and deployed about 60 military forces and six 122-millimeter multiple-launch rocket systems there.
A squad of 20 soldiers has been deployed on Arido, also formerly uninhabited, along with surveillance radar and a camera, according to the sources. [Yonhap]
The North Korean shooting down an airliner with an anti-aircraft missile has always been something I have been concerned about. Could you imagine what that would do to air traffic to Incheon International Airport? It would basically shut off all air travel to Incheon for who knows how long which would have huge economic impacts for South Korea. This is why I have never been a huge fan of where the international airport was constructed. However, shooting down an airliner would be a huge provocation that could trigger a military response in retaliation, so I think the Kim regime would try and shoot down a military aircraft before trying something like this. Shooting down a military aircraft is something they have done before and in recent years have deployed their SA-5s along the DMZ to threaten ROK aircraft. The North Koreans just test fired an anti-aircraft missile which makes me wonder if they are trying to signal something to South Korea that they best watch their aircraft?:
SA-5 anti-aircraft missile.
North Korea on Friday launched a surface-to-air missile into waters off its east coast, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said, a move seen as a show of defiance against mounting pressure to give up its nuclear program.
The North fired off the anti-aircraft missile at around 12:45 p.m. from South Hamgyong Province in the country’s northeastern area. The missile was fired toward the East Sea, according to the JCS.
It said that the military is on high alert amid heighten cross-border tensions following the North’s nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch in February.
Seoul, earlier thought the North fired a ballistic missile, but on close examination of the trajectory picked up by its radar said it was a surface-to-air missile. The missile flew some 100 kilometers.
The North’s provocation came as President Park Geun-hye held a three-way summit with her counterparts from the United States and Japan on Thursday in Washington to discuss how to deal with the North’s nuclear weapons program.
Park warned of additional tougher sanctions against North Korea if the communist country carries out another provocation.
Also on Friday, South Korea’s defense ministry said that the North is continuing to jam GPS signals in South Korea in an attempt to raise tensions on the peninsula. [Yonhap]
I am sure the ROK military has thoroughly thought through and rehearsed their plans in response to whatever the next provocation North Korea has planned:
Tensions are running high near the inter-Korean border Friday afternoon as South Korea’s military resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts toward North Korea in the demilitarized zone(DMZ).
To deal with possible North Korean attacks on South Korean speaker facilities, the South’s military has issued its highest level of vigilance at eleven areas at the forefront, where the psychological warfare facilities have been installed.
A defense official said Friday that the military will thoroughly carry out propaganda broadcast operations, and it will respond sternly and accordingly if the North’s military engages in artillery provocations against the loudspeakers or nearby areas.
In case the North attacks, the South’s military is said to be planning to retaliate with fire power that is three to four times stronger than the North’s. [KBS World Radio]
This is a pretty typical play from the US playbook in response to North Korean military provocations:
The United States’ B-52 Stratofortress strategic bomber flew in the skies of South Korea on Sunday in a major show of force four days after North Korea conducted what it said was its first hydrogen bomb test.
The B-52 bomber left U.S. Andersen Air Force Base in Guam on Sunday morning and arrived in the skies above Osan, Gyeonggi Province, at noon, armed with nuclear missiles and “bunker buster” bombs that are capable of bombarding North Korea’s underground facilities, according to Seoul and Washington.
The bomber flew low past the Osan air base, flanked by an entourage of two South Korean F-15Ks and two U.S. F-16s before returning to its home base, the two sides’ militaries said. [Yonhap]
Like I suspected the ROK offered the North Koreans some significant financial rewards if they apologized for the landmine attack. basically what his comes down to is that two ROK soldiers had to have their legs blown off so the ROK could pay off the North Koreans to apologize. This is another example of why the North Koreans commit provocations, because they work:
A landmark inter-Korean deal to resolve heightened cross-border tensions could give fresh momentum to bilateral economic cooperation that has been stalled due to strained relations between the archrivals, analysts said Tuesday.
The agreement, reached early Tuesday after marathon negotiations, defused the military standoff triggered by a land-mine explosion that maimed two South Korean soldiers on Aug. 4, and an artillery exchange on Thursday.
Excluding the joint industrial complex in Kaesong North Korea, inter-Korean economic projects have been in limbo since South Korea imposed a blanket ban on economic cooperation and personnel exchanges in March 2010, in retaliation for the North’s sinking of a South Korean naval vessel near the western maritime border.
Observers said the overnight breakthrough could make it possible for the two sides to restart negotiations on suspended economic cooperation projects and possibly lifting the sanctions.
The latest deal does not mention lifting Seoul’s comprehensive sanctions although it calls for high-level talks to take place as soon as possible which can touch on broader outstanding issues.
North Korea watchers speculated that Pyongyang raised the issue of lifting sanctions and the resumption of tours to the Mount Kumgang resort on its southeast coast, which were halted in July 2008 when a South Korean female tourist was shot dead by a North Korean soldier.
Seoul demanded Pyongyang allow a renewed on-site probe into the death of the tourist and take measures to ensure the safety of its citizens. Pyongyang, however, claimed it had done everything it could, including a verbal promise by then leader Kim Jong-il to make sure no such tragedy would happen again. [Yonhap]
South Korean President Park Geun-hye has dropped everything on her schedule to meet and encourage the ROK military in the wake of the recent exchange of fire on the DMZ with the North Koreans:
President Park Geun-hye, Defense Minister Han Min-koo (left) and National Security Office chief Kim Kwan-jin visit the headquarters of the Third Army in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province, Friday. Cheong Wa Dae
Following the exchange of fire, Kim presided over an emergency meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party’s Central Military Commission, instructing frontline units to switch to a “wartime state” and fully arm themselves starting from 5 p.m. on Thursday, state media said.
The North last made the “quasi-state of war” declaration in November 2010 when it shelled a South Korean border island in the West Sea.
“Military commanders were urgently appointed and dispatched for operations to strike the enemy’s means of psychological warfare and quell possible counteraction if it did not stop the propaganda broadcasts,” the official Korean Central Television reported.
President Park Geun-hye urged the South Korean military to stay ready to react immediately to any further provocation and blasted Pyongyang for churning out security threats during her visit to a field army command in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province.
The trip, which came after she shelved her scheduled tour to southern parts of the country, was designed to examine its readiness posture and encourage soldiers, Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Min Kyung-wook said. She was briefed by commanders there on their plans to respond to potential attacks and the current movements by the North Korean military.
Presiding over a video conference with operational commanders later in the day, Defense Minister Han Min-koo also called for airtight readiness and effective situation management, saying that after the deadline the North may stage a provocation “in any way.” [Korea Herald]
The ROK has no plans to give into North Korean demands which the Kim regime assuredly knew they would not. The demand is just being made to justify a future provocation. It appears the leading theory is that they will fire missiles into the Sea of Japan or a cyberattack of some kind in the near term. It will probably be both since it appears the North Koreans are already gearing up to fire missiles:
Separately, North Korea seems to be gearing up to fire missiles, an official said, a move that could be seen as a show of force against South Korea amid escalating tensions.
“The North is showing signs of shooting off a Scud missile near Wonsan and a Rodong missile in North Pyongan Province,” the official said, citing detection results of its joint radar system with the United States. [Yonhap]
Besides launching another DMZ provocation, a naval engagement in the Yellow Sea is always a possibility, but I don’t think they would try this now because the ROK military’s guard is way up right now. However, they could try and fire an anti-ship missile from their mainland somewhere into the Yellow Sea near at ROK vessel. I don’t think they would actually try and sink a ROK ship like they did the Cheonan because it would be too easy to pin the blame on them. Remember they have never admitted to sinking the Cheonan. They have fired these anti-ship missiles into the Sea of Japan before so firing them into the congested waters of the Yellow Sea would be a pretty good provocation. Another, but unlikely provocation is to detain someone at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. They have done this before and have set conditions to do it again, but I think at this point another provocation using Kaesong would probably lead to its closure which has been a cash cow for the Kim regime:
Meanwhile, South Korea said it has measures to ensure the safety of its nationals who are temporarily staying in the North.
It said it has put a partial ban on the entry of its nationals into an inter-Korean joint factory park in the North’s western border city of Kaesong.
The factory park, the last remaining symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, is home to 120 small South Korean factories producing garments, shoes, watches and other labor-intensive goods. More than 54,000 North Koreans work in the complex. [Yonhap]
I think this is all leading to the bigger provocation coming up which is when they try and do their expected October space launch. The launch would once again violate United Nations sanctions and be a major media event where once again North Korea will be dominating the headlines. The bottom line is that I don’t expect to see North Korea out of the news anytime soon; what they plan to do to dominate the headlines is still open to debate.
What does everyone else think the Kim regime will try to do in the coming weeks?
Via the Stars and Stripes comes this YouTube video which shows when the two ROK Army soldiers were hit by the planted North Korean landmine:
Here is what experts in the article had to say about detecting such infiltrations:
A South Korean military official, speaking on customary condition of anonymity, said that while South Korean troops aggressively monitor the border with advanced surveillance equipment and their naked eyes, their ability to monitor some portions of the DMZ is limited.
North and South Korean troops man outposts along the Military Demarcation Line, often in forested areas.
“It’s very difficult to keep watch there for 24 hours a day, especially if it’s rainy or foggy,” said Kim Seongmin, a defector and former North Korean military officer who now heads Free North Korea Radio. “If North Korean troops want to violate the armistice agreement, they can do it there,” he said.
An Chanil, who was stationed at the DMZ as a platoon sergeant in the North Korean army, agreed.
“Nobody can see everywhere,” said An, who defected in 1979 and is now president of the World Institute for Korea Studies, a Seoul-based think tank.
He said ordinary North Korean soldiers would have difficulty crossing the demarcation line, though specially trained reconnaissance soldiers could do so with ease.
You can read more at the link, but this is why any North Korean soldiers caught violating the armistice should be shot on site. In the past warning shots were fired when they were caught crossing the DMZ. It is now time to start attriting their operatives who are specially trained for these missions. That will be a deterrent to continuing to launch such attacks.
According to the below article there is not much that the South Koreans can do in regards to the recent mine attack that wounded two South Korean troops. I disagree, just for starters the ROK government should have Park Sang-hak and his team on speed dial to go launch some of their propaganda balloons with DVDs of “The Interview” on them. Announcing government funding for defector radio stations is another option. The biggest trump card the ROK government has is to end the near-slave labor operation going on at Kaesong that is a major Kim regime cash cow:
South Korea announced a series of measures this week aimed at deterring another North Korean land mine attack, from broadcasting anti-Pyongyang messages across the Demilitarized Zone to changing patrol times for its soldiers.
But in a climate where military officials fear that even the smallest exchange of fire could escalate into a full-blown conflict, there might be little Seoul will do to punish the North or discourage further provocations, some experts say.
Two South Korean soldiers were maimed Aug. 4 after triggering several recently planted land mines during a routine morning patrol at the DMZ, near Paju. The blasts happened about 1,440 feet south of the Military Demarcation Line, which marks the actual border between the two Koreas. One of the soldiers lost his legs, and the other lost a foot.
The land mine attack, while tragic, is a relatively minor incident in the larger picture of inter-Korean relations, and the appropriate response for Seoul is unclear, said Daniel Pinkston of the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict.
“It’s this real kind of gray area that doesn’t rise to the level of triggering some kind of military counter attack,” he said.
South Korean forces will vary patrol times so they cannot be tracked by North Korea, and will increase the number of search and reconnaissance missions along the DMZ. Troops will also conduct a sweep for additional land mines this month, and will toughen engagement rules for North Korean troops who cross into the South’s territory, according to South Korean media reports Tuesday. [Stars & Stripes]
