It looks like Kim Jong-un got cold feet and decided not to travel to Russia after all:
South Korea sees no abnormal signs in North Korea which might have caused its leader, Kim Jong-un, to cancel his planned trip to Russia next week, a Defense Ministry official said Friday.
On Thursday, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that the North Korean leader will not visit Moscow for a celebration to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, saying that the decision “is related to internal Korean affairs.”
South Korean and Russian officials had expected the leader of the reclusive nation to attend a military parade and hold a bilateral meeting with Putin. It would have been his first foreign trip since taking office in 2011 upon the death of his father, Kim Jong-il.
“We don’t believe that any notable internal affairs are taking place in North Korea (that are) serious enough to cause Kim not to attend the event,” the official said, requesting anonymity. [Korea Times]
You can read the rest at the link, but experts think that Kim Jong-un decided not to go because he is not ready to share the stage with many other national leaders.
It sounds like some in South Korea are getting tired of hearing complaints from the Chinese and Russians against the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system:
On Thursday, the Russian ambassador to South Korea called the proposed deployment of a U.S. missile defense system on the peninsula a security threat to the region, the third time in as many weeks that he has weighed in on the issue.
In an interview with Yonhap News Agency, Alexander Timonin, who served as the ambassador to North Korea until last year, said the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) on the Korean Peninsula would constitute a security threat to both Russia and the wider region.
“What concerns us is that a U.S. missile defense system could be placed in areas not far from Russia, adding to worries over THAAD’s radar system or technology,” he told Yonhap. (…….)
“Of course it has multi-purpose tasks. One of the tasks, of course, is North Korea,” Vorontsov told The Diplomat on Thursday. “But, additionally, the capability of this system allows this equipment to intercept missiles, Russian… missiles for example. So, yes, unfortunately, there are grounds for concern vis-a-vis [the] security situation of Russia… and the Chinese.” (……………..)
But some Koreans have received the Russian and Chinese objections coldly.
Song Dae-sung, a professor of political science and former brigadier general with the South Korean Air Force, said that Russia and China preventing THAAD would be the same as South Korea demanding the removal of Russian and Chinese missile placements that could target the Korean Peninsula.
“If China and Russia really hate the placement of THAAD in South Korea, they can take resolute action to ensure the destruction of weapons of mass destruction held by North Korea and a halt to their development,” the Konkuk University professor told The Diplomat late last month. “The insistence that we only consider the South Korea-China and South Korea-Russia relationships and not deploy THAAD, which is opposed by China and Russia, is an insistence that neglects the absolute value of national security.” [The Diplomat]
You can read the rest at the link, but I do find it interesting that a Russian is publicly complaining about THAAD preventing their country from shooting missiles at South Korea.
I don’t think the Chinese really mind the North Koreans having a few nukes for regime security, but the brinkmanship and continual threats against neighboring countries and the lack of Chinese style economic reforms is what I think is really causing the Chinese to snub Kim Jong-un:
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may not be able to visit China on his first foreign trip if there is no progress in diplomatic efforts to persuade the North to give up its nuclear ambitions, South Korea’s ambassador to China said Wednesday.
Amb. Kwon Young-se was also cautious when talking about the possibility of a visit by Kim to Russia in May, saying it is too early to conclude that Kim’s trip to Russia would take place.
Kim took the helm of the authoritarian state in late 2011 after his father, Kim Jong-il, died. China is North Korea’s ideological ally and economic lifeline, but their political ties remain strained, particularly after the North’s third nuclear test in early 2013.
Russia has said that Kim would be among those attending the May 9th ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
“I believe that a visit by Kim Jong-un to China is connected to the issue of denuclearization,” Kwon told Yonhap News Agency in an interview.
“From the perspective of China, there is a clear aspect that it would be burdensome to conduct a highest-level exchange with North Korea at a time when North Korea shows no progress in the nuclear issue,” Kwon said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but with that all said the Chinese are not about to abandon the regime to collapse either. They are just not providing as much to the regime as before and the regime may think buddying up to Putin may make up for the economic aid they have lost from the Chinese.
If Kim Jong-un does go to Russia for this trip I would not be surprised if one of the preconditions is that the South Koreans are not invited:
Russia’s foreign minister said Wednesday North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has given a “positive” response to President Vladimir Putin’s invitation to visit Russia in May for the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
But Seoul has yet to decide whether President Park Geun-hye will also go.
“The president’s schedule for May has not been fixed and many other events are set to take place,” said Blue House spokesman Min Kyung-wook in a briefing Thursday. “We will be reviewing [whether or not to accept Russia’s invitation] under such circumstances … We are not in a situation yet to rush to come up with a stance.”
On Wednesday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Kim Jong-un’s response had been “positive, as a first signal.”
Ever since December, when Moscow invited the leaders of both Koreas to an event it plans to hold in May, keen attention has been paid to whether Park and Kim would come face to face for the first time.
If Kim goes to Moscow, it will be the first foreign visit by the 32-year-old ruler since he assumed power in 2011 and his debut on the stage of international diplomacy. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I guess this is a chance to see if Kim Jong-un is going to try some different diplomacy compared to his father.
North Korea made an attempt to purchase advanced fighter jets from Russia by sending a special envoy, a senior South Korean military official told the JoongAng Ilbo on Thursday.
“Choe Ryong-hae, who visited Moscow as a special envoy of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in November last year, asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets,” the military source said.
Little has been disclosed about the discussions between Choe and Putin. Choe, a member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau and secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of North Korea, met with Putin on Nov. 18 and delivered a letter from Kim, the Russian presidential office has said, without providing further details. The Kremlin said the meeting was not open to the press, and no press conference was arranged afterward.
“The North produces many weapons systems domestically, but it appears to have sought Russia’s help because building fighter jets requires more complex technologies,” said the official. “But because of international sanctions imposed on the North, Russia won’t likely sell it readily.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
This has the makings of being another possible mass casualty event for South Korea:
Rescuers searched Monday for more than 50 people missing after a South Korean fishing ship they were working on sank amid high waves in the freezing waters of the Bering Sea, officials said. At least one person died.
Authorities rescued seven crew members and recovered one body, but weather and water conditions were complicating the search for the others, an official from the South Korean fisheries and oceans ministry said on condition of anonymity because of office rules.
The crew included 35 Indonesians, 13 Filipinos, 11 South Koreans and one Russian inspector, the official said. Russian authorities said there were 62 people aboard the ship, which sank in the western part of the Bering Sea, near Russia.
The South Korean ministry official said it’s believed that the ship, which was catching pollock, began to list after stormy weather caused seawater to flood its storage areas. The official said the 2,100-ton ship was 35 years old. [Yahoo via reader tip]
You can read more at the link, but hopefully Russian search and rescue can pull these guys out of the water
Russia stands on disputed territory everywhere: in the southern Kurile Islands off Japan, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia off Georgia, on restive Muslim areas in the Caucasus, and now in Crimea. Closer to Central Asia, it rules several additional Muslim populations like the Tatars, who don’t have their own states only by the whim of early Soviet cartographers. More than 20 percent of Russia’s population are minorities, since historically Russia’s borders have fluctuated wildly. It thus needs reminding that discarding territorial integrity can have serious consequences elsewhere.
The United States should issue a strong statement supporting Japan’s ownership of the southern Kurile Islands.
Reengage—loudly–with the Europeans and Tbilisi launching Georgia’s NATO Membership Action Plan.
Refer to Chechnya and Dagestan as “disputed” areas, at the UN and other multilateral fora.
Nothing would rattle Russian confidence like the prospect of United States officials meeting – even expressing interest in meeting – opposition leaders in Dagestan. And perhaps the Tatars should have their own state as well. Maybe the UN should look into it.
Yes, there are many ethnic Russians in Europe. There are also many non-Russians in Russia. Let the Kremlin chew on what real revisionism would look like. [Fiscal Times]
This will probably annoy the Russians, but would the Russians actually believe anyone would follow through on the threats? Is anyone in Europe and the US ready for Operation: Kuril Freedom? Or better yet Operation: Chechnya Freedom? Few people have an appetite for military intervention now a days and Putin knows this and is why he taking advantage of this while he can in the Ukraine.
