Tag: Russia

I have hard time believing that Russia was ever going to “attack” Japan like this Newsweek report is claiming. An attack on Japan would trigger the US-Japan alliance which would lead to an overwhelming military response that would crush whatever attack Russia launched. With that all said, after what we have seen of the Russian performance in Ukraine, the Japanese military could probably defeat any Russian attack without American assistance:

Russia was preparing to attack Japan in the summer of 2021, months before President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an email featuring a letter from a whistleblower at Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), shared with Newsweek, reveals.

The email, dated March 17, was sent by the agent, dubbed the Wind of Change, to Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian human-rights activist who runs the anti-corruption website Gulagu.net, and is now exiled in France.

The FSB agent writes regular dispatches to Osechkin, revealing the anger and discontent inside the service over the war that began when Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

Newsweek

You can read more at the link, but what I can believe is that Russia may have been determining the likelihood of succeeding with a provocation against Japan such as sinking one of its naval ships. This would put Japan in tough spot because their constitution would not allow them to undertake offensive operations and thus the Japanese government would turn to the U.S. for support.

This would also put the U.S. in a tough spot because the Biden administration would have to determine if taking offensive action against Russia is worth it in response to a sunken Japanese ship. Putin would likely bet no offensive military action would be taken and instead toothless sanctions and sternly worded letters would be issued. The lack of a response from the U.S. would have put a strain on the U.S.-Japan alliance which is what their ultimate goal may have been. Additionally sinking a Japanese ship would be a morale boost for the Russian Pacific Fleet. I wonder if Putin wishes he would have initiated a provocation against Japan instead of his current disastrous war in Ukraine?

This is nothing new because both countries have conducted these joint flights before, but still this is not a very neighborly thing to do threatening your neighbors like this:

Two Chinese and six Russian warplanes entered South Korea’s air defense identification zone (KADIZ) without notice Wednesday, prompting the Air Force to scramble fighters to the scene, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

The planes’ entry into the KADIZ came as South Korea is pushing to strengthen its alliance with the United States amid an intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry, while maintaining its opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The JCS said the warplanes flew across the KADIZ but did not violate South Korea’s territorial air.

At 5:48 a.m., two Chinese H-6 bombers flew into the KADIZ from an area 126 kilometers northwest of Ieo Islet, a submerged rock south of the southern island of Jeju, and they left the KADIZ at 6:13 a.m.

At 6:44 a.m., the bombers reentered the KADIZ from an area northeast of South Korea’s southern port city of Pohang and exited the zone at 7:07 a.m.

Then six Russian aircraft — four TU-95 bombers and two SU-35 fighters — as well as two Chinese H-6 bombers flew into the KADIZ from an area 200 km northeast of the South’s Ulleung Island at 12:18 p.m. and exited the zone at 12:36 p.m.

The two countries appeared to have engaged in a combined air exercise, observers said.

Yonhap

You can read more at the link.

South Korea has joined with the vast majority of the world to condemn Russia’s attempted annexation of territory within Ukraine:

The South Korean government said Saturday it does not recognize Russia’s recent annexation of Ukrainian territory as legitimate while strongly condemning Moscow’s invasion of the eastern European country.

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed treaties to annex four regions in Ukraine, following referendums in the territory late last month.

“The Korean government strongly condemns Russia’s armed invasion against Ukraine as a violation of the principles of the U.N. Charter,” foreign ministry spokesperson Lim Soo-suk said in a statement.

“The Korean government does not recognize the referenda held in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson and Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian territory as legitimate.”

Yonhap

You can read more at the link, but areas that Russia is claiming in this annexation have already been liberated by Ukraine. This includes Russia’s embarrassing defeat this weekend in the logistical hub of Lyman.

I highly recommend watching the entire news clip below of Russian propagandists trying to explain the defeat of their forces in Northeast Ukraine. In the clip the propagandists also make the case that North Korea should join Russia in an anti-Imperialist coalition against the west in Ukraine. I mentioned this before that it appears that the Russian propaganda apparatus is trying to will aid from North Korea into existence.

The Kim regime may be a lot of things, but they are not stupid. They will probably happily sell munitions to the Russians, but I don’t see them sending personnel and equipment in what is increasingly looking like a lost cause. The final statement from the show doesn’t exactly inspire confidence either, “Stalin called for ones who panic to be shot”.

It is arguable that the use of the occupied Kuril Islands for this military exercise is to signal to Japan that China will help Russia defend them in a contingency. With the Russian military so bogged down in Ukraine it is likely Russia could not hold these islands if the Japanese made a move on them:

 Japan has protested to Russia over multinational military exercises being conducted on Russian-held islands claimed by Japan, and is seriously concerned about shooting drills by Russian and Chinese warships off Japan’s northern coast, an official said Monday.

Beijing has been increasing its military cooperation with Moscow, and has been taking part in the multinational “Vostok 2020” drills since late August at a number of locations in Russia’s far east.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno criticized Russia for holding exercises on two of the four disputed islands, which Japan calls the Northern Territories, in the Kuril chain off Japan’s northernmost main island of Hokkaido. It was not clear whether China was part of the exercises on the disputed islands.

He said Japan’s Defense Ministry spotted six Russian and Chinese warships firing machine guns into the Sea of Japan about 190 kilometers (118 miles) west of Cape Kamui on Hokkaido on Saturday.

“Japan will continue to monitor the movements of these ships with serious concern, and will take all possible measures to conduct warning and surveillance activities in the waters surrounding Japan,” Matsuno said at a news conference.

SF Gate

You can read more at the link, but Russian and Chinese warships also passed through the Soya Straight between Honshu and Hokkaido once again demonstrating how they are trying to intentionally be provocative towards Japan.

This is a nice troll response by the Ukraine Defense Ministry to news that the Russians are buying munitions from the North Koreans:

Russia has been forced to buy military hardware from North Korea as sanctions squeeze Moscow’s ability to supply its military, the US says.

A US official revealed Moscow is the process of purchasing millions of rockets and artillery shells from Pyongyang for use in Ukraine.

And they said that Russia could be forced to buy additional North Korean weaponry as the war dragged on. 

Buying from North Korea is a sign of “severe supply shortages”, they added.

The intelligence was first reported by the New York Times. Ukraine’s defence ministry tweeted a mocking response to the report, saying that it showed “Soviet weapons” had “exhausted their potential”.

The ministry said the while Ukraine was switching to Nato standards, Russia was heading in the direction of North Korean standards – be it in the field of “weapons, politics or standard of living”.

BBC

You can read more at the link.

The Russians are trying to flex their muscles in the East Sea:

Two Russian Tu-95 bombers flew through Korea’s air defense identification zone (Kadiz) Tuesday, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).  
   
The JCS confirmed that the planes entered the Kadiz after the Russian Ministry of Defense warned they would.  
   
“Two strategic missile carriers for long-range aviation performed a scheduled flight in the airspace over the neutral waters of the Sea of Japan,” the ministry said in a statement, referring to the East Sea. “The flight duration was about seven hours. At certain stages during the route, the strategic missile carriers were escorted by F-16 fighters of the Republic of Korea air force.” 

Joong Ang Ilbo

You can read more at the link.