It looks like North Korea’s next provocation may be another submarine launched ballistic missile test:
This undated picture released from North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on August 25, 2016 shows a test-fire of strategic submarine-launched ballistic missile being launched at an undisclosed location. KNS/AFP/Getty
North Korea may be preparing for another missile launch aimed at the United States.
And now the totalitarian regime appears to be preparing for submarine-based missile launches in the future.
Two U.S. defense officials told CNN on Thursday that a North Korean submarine was engaged in “unusual deployment activity” over the past 48 hours. The 65-meter-long submarine has sailed 62 miles out into international waters in the Sea of Japan/ East Sea, farther than the vessel has ever gone before.
U.S. officials are following the submarine via reconnaissance and the abnormal activity caused American and South Korean forces to slightly raise their alert level, according to one of the officials. [Newsweek]
It appears that along with the submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test capability currently developed on North Korea’s east coast, the Kim regime is busy trying to develop this same test capability on its West Coast as well:
Recent satellite images show North Korea may be steadily building up its submarine-launched ballistic missile program.
The commercial satellite imagery published by 38 North, a Johns HopkinsUniversity website dedicated to North Korea issues, show a second test stand barge for Pyongyang’s SLBMs.
The images from April 19 are aerial shots of Nampo Naval Shipyard, on the western coast of North Korea, writes Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
The barge is “identical” in size and layout to the original barge that was first identified in 2014, according to the analyst.
The first barge was found at Sinpo South Shipyard on the east coast where as many as six SLBM launches took place since 2014. [UPI]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (C) appears delighted with military officers after watching a successful launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile in this photo released by the (North) Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 25, 2016. The North claimed full success in the test firing of “Pukguksong” carried out a day earlier. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), “Pukguksong,” is being transported to be loaded onto a sub in this photo released by the (North) Korean Central TV on Aug. 25, 2016. The North claimed full success in the test firing of Pukguksong carried out a day earlier. The missile flew about 500 kilometers toward Japan, according to the South Korean military. (Yonhap)
In response to the recent North Korean Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) test, some are advocating for the ROK to develop nuclear powered submarines:
The need for South Korea to possess a nuclear-powered submarine is increasing as the country moves to counter North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) threat, military experts here said Friday.
They are emphasizing the necessity for Seoul to acquire a submarine with far greater endurance than conventional diesel-electric counterparts after North Korea test-fired an SLBM that flew about 500 kilometers earlier this week. This provocation, which is viewed as a “successful” launch, has fueled concerns about technical improvements in the reclusive country’s missile programs that can threaten global security.
Once a submarine goes underwater, it is hard to track. This makes it very difficult to determine when an SLBM will be launched, which can hinder a timely and effective response.
Many observers have said the best way to counter SLBM threats is to pre-emptively attack the missile-armed submarine in the event of an emergency situation.
If an SLBM is capable of carrying a small nuclear warhead, it can pose a formidable threat, as the North would be able to hit targets theoretically from anywhere with little warning, experts said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but I think the ROK should consider developing nuclear submarines as well as their own advanced SLBM technology to not only put pressure on North Korea, but China as well. Anti-submarine warfare is something that the Chinese are far behind in and a neighboring country developing their own advanced submarine technology will only further expose this Chinese weakness. This would put further pressure on China to stop North Korea’s constant provocations against the ROK.
Just another example of how serious the North Koreans are about fully developing their SLBM technology:
North Korea is in the midst of building a new naval base on the east coast to accommodate submarines capable of firing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), a British military media agency said Sunday.
According to the report by IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, North Korea is currently building the new military facility at a location some 2.25 kilometers from Sinpo Shipyard, the homeport of North Korea’s ballistic missile submarine program, in South Hamgyong Province.
The existing shipyard currently houses 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarines, which have been used by North Korea to test-fire SLBMs.
The purpose of the new naval base is presumed to be housing submarines larger than the Sinpo-class, the report added.
Sources earlier said Pyongyang is known to be developing a 3,000-ton submarine that can carry more than three SLBMs. The existing Sinpo-class submarine can hold only one SLBM at a time. [Yonhap]
As I have said before, North Korea developing SLBMs is a game changer because it complicates missile defenses. Missile defense batteries have to point their radars in the direction of where the threat is coming from. Right now with North Korea it is easy because their missiles are all launched from a northerly direction from South Korea. With SLBMs they could come from any direction if the submarines are not properly tracked.
As we have seen with other North Korean missiles the more they test, the better they get at mastering the technology:
North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) off its east coast on Saturday, but the missile failed in its initial flight stage, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
The missile was fired from waters southeast of the coastal port city of Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province, at around 11:30 a.m., according to the military.
“The SLBM was ejected from the submarine normally, but (we) estimate the initial flight was unsuccessful,” the JCS said in a brief press release.
“Our military strongly denounces such provocative acts by North Korea,” the JCS noted.
North Korea’s ballistic missile launches are direct violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, including its Musudan missile launches on June 22 and the latest launch, the military said.
Military sources said the latest SLBM appears to have exploded at an altitude of some 10 kilometers after being fired from a submerged 2,000-ton Sinpo-class submarine.
The missile flew only a few kilometers before the presumed explosion, they said.
South Korea’s military said that North Korea has achieved progress in the initial undersea ejection stage of its SLBM technology.
The North is probably in the flight test stage of its SLBM before moving onto the final test phase that will require the missile to hit targets, the sources said.
The North may be ready to deploy its SLBMs for service in about three years, according to the military. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but out of all of North Korea’s missiles this is the most dangerous and a game changer because it can defeat missile defenses. That is because submarines can fire without notice from any direction which prevents missile defense units from knowing in which direction to point their radars towards.
The ROK has decided that it needs to keep up with the Kims and develop their own SLBM technology:
The South Korean Military is developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), a high-ranking military official said.
“On the 3,000-ton Jangbogo-III submarine, which is currently under production, we are installing a vertical launching pad,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. SLBMs are fired undersea and are therefore difficult to detect by radar. He added, “The installation of a vertical launching pad indicates that the SLBM is already under development.” The official also went on to say that the SLBM is being developed under the aegis of the Agency of Defense Development and is expected to be completed by 2020.
The South Korean Navy’s arsenal currently includes the submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). However, as North Korea’s endeavor to develop SLBM technology has almost reached completion, the need within the South Korean military to initiate a response has become urgent. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but I would think this is another military development by the ROK caused by North Korea that China cannot be too happy about considering its potential implications to deter aggressive behavior by the Chinese regime as well.
This image taken of the North’s Shinpo Shipyard on April 29, 2016, six days after the North’s latest submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test, shows that a submersible missile test stand barge has been moved from its normal position, in this photo provided by the website 38 North and Airbus Defense and Space. (Yonhap)
