Tag: South China Sea

UN Court to Take Up Case Against Chinese Claims in the South China Sea

| October 30, 2015

It is going to be interesting to see how this plays out.  The Chinese have so much invested in these South China Sea islands I just don’t see them backing down even if the UN court rules against them.  The domestic political blowback would be too much with accusations of the Chinese government backing down to foreigners.  The UN court though could legitimize the freedom of navigation patrols which are currently being executed by the US Navy.  The ruling is supposed to be released sometime in 2016:

The Hague (AFP) – An international tribunal ruled Thursday it had the power to hear a case brought by the Philippines over disputed islands in the South China Sea, in a move likely to trigger fury in Beijing.

Manila has insisted the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which the Philippines and China have both ratified, should be used to resolve the bitter territorial row over isolated reefs and islets, which has triggered growing international alarm.

But China has refused to participate in the proceedings, arguing the Permanent Court of Arbitration — which is more than a century old and based in The Hague — had no jurisdiction over the case.

“Reviewing the claims submitted by the Philippines, the tribunal has rejected the argument” by China that the “dispute is actually about sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea and therefore beyond the tribunal’s jurisdiction,” the court said in a statement.

Instead, the court ruled the case reflects “disputes between the two states concerning the interpretation or application of the Convention” — something which falls within its remit.

China insists it has sovereign rights to nearly all of the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which about a third of all the world’s traded oil passes.

The disputed waters — claimed in part by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei — have also become the stage for a tussle for regional dominance between Beijing and Washington, the world’s two largest economic and military powers.

Following a stand-off between Chinese ships and the weak Filipino Navy in 2012, China took control of a rich fishing ground called Scarborough Shoal that is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.  [Associated Press]

You can read the rest at the link.

Chinese Internet Posters Angry Government Did Not Attack US Navy Ship

| October 28, 2015

Chinese Internet posters are supposedly going bonkers over the fact that a US Navy ship conducted a freedom of navigation patrol through the South China Sea which the Chinese government ridiculously claims is part of China:

SCS Image

On Oct. 27, the high-stakes maritime game of chicken that has been playing out in the South China Sea came to a head. In a long-discussed freedom of navigation patrol, the United States sailed the USS Lassen, a guided missile destroyer, within 12 miles of artificial islands that China has built amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China tracked and warned the U.S. vessel; the operation concluded without incident and prompted swift condemnation from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But after weeks of tough government rhetoric claiming that China would not stand for what it views as a violation of its territorial sovereignty, Chinese social media voices are now mocking what many perceive as a spineless official response.  [Foreign Policy]

Despite all the online venom to attack the US ship one Chinese Internet user left a popular post which accurately reflects what I think is going on:

China’s shrill online nationalists may dominate the web in the aftermath of a flashpoint, but while common, such online outrage has not led to government action in the past. And some netizens harbor more nuanced perspectives. One particularly discerning Weibo user, who identified himself as a 22-year-old native of China’s northeastern Shandong province, also seemed to take the long view of the South China Sea, noting the behind-the-scenes machinations that make the region so complex. “This seems like a game,” wrote the user in a popular comment. “Not only have both countries maintained their reputations, neither country has suffered any losses.” Another observed somewhat sardonically that the situation, all told, was “well managed.” The user noted that China had “gotten rid of the U.S. ship, maintained its sovereignty, and hasn’t worsened the situation. Afterwards, it can be used as an excuse for militarization in the South China Sea.”

Like I have said before the US’s and China’s interests in the South China Sea do no necessarily come into conflict.  From the US perspective we want freedom of navigation through the SCS.  From the Chinese perspective they want strategic space to defend the sea lanes leading to the southeastern China and to a lesser extent the fishing and mineral rights.  As long as each side respects the others interests in the SCS there is no reason for conflict unless the Chinese government is stupid enough to listen to hateful commenters on the Internet.

Chinese Admiral Tells International Naval Forum that South China Sea Belongs to China

| September 17, 2015

It looks like the US and its allies should open a new front with the South China Sea issue and get the name of this body of water officially changed just like the South Koreans have been trying to do for years with the Sea of Japan:

SCS Image

In a rare appearance together, American and Chinese admirals sat alongside one another to present their views on maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region. The audience came to hear about one thing, the South China Sea, and China’s commander was clear: “It belongs to China.”

There was political theater and a few one-liners, as the panel remained cordial and the admirals were all smiles during handshakes before and after. But the tension was real and the messages direct.

“The South China Sea, as the name indicated, is a sea area. It belongs to China,” said Vice Adm. Yuan Yubai, who commands the North Sea Fleet for the People’s Liberation Army Navy.  [Defense One]

You can read the whole thing at the link, but what I found most fascinating about the article was how direct these admirals were talking to each other about the issues in the South China Sea.

Japan May Expand Naval Operations Into the South China Sea

| February 9, 2015

It will be interesting to see what the South Korean reaction will be if the Japanese decide to expand their naval operations into the South China Sea:

Japan is interested in the South China Sea disputes gripping Southeast Asia for two main reasons. First, any tension in these waters could disrupt the free flow of traffic through critical sea lines, which are vital for resource-poor Japan’s economy and survival. Second, Japanese officials are closely monitoring how China handles these island disputes to try to discern how China might try to deal with Japan in their ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.

The interconnectedness of these two issues is evident in the rife speculation that China might unilaterally declare an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea after it did so in the East China Sea in November 2013 (speculation which China has consistently denied). Such interconnectedness also leads to concerns that a negative outcome – a resolution of a dispute through the use or threat of the use of force – could set a precedent that affects other disputes. By supporting front-line states in the South China Sea, Japan sees itself as defending its own interests by upholding the norm of peaceful resolution, ironically, through military deterrence.

The U.S. would endorse a move in Japan’s security posture toward greater assertiveness and collaboration with Southeast Asian partners. Admiral Robert Thomas, commander of the Seventh Fleet, said in an interview to Reuters, “I think allies, partners and friends in the region will look to the Japanese more and more as a stabilizing function.”   [The Diplomat]

You can read more at the link, but the Japanese are seriously considering expanding air and naval operations into the South China Sea.  It seems to me this will just increase the chances of an incident between China and Japan happening.  The most likely incident would be the Chinese provoking Japanese patrols with their fishing boat fleet to create an incident.  I hope before the Japanese move forward with this that they really think through how they would respond to Chinese provocations against their forces.

US To Sell Military Equipment to Vietnam

| October 23, 2014

How times have changed:

SCS Image

It’s no secret that the United States has worried about the expansion of Chinese military power. The U.S., distracted by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has neglected Asia. The so-called “Asia Pivot” has been an attempt to correct that, broadening old alliances while forming new agreements with countries not traditionally American allies, but which share an interest in containing China.

Vietnam would probably like a full array of modern American weapons, but fiscal and geopolitical realities must temper expectations. American weapons are expensive — a single F-35 fighter bomber costs $100 million, and Vietnam’s entire defense budget is only $7 billion.

The United States will — at least for the foreseeable future — refuse requests to sell deadly weapons like bombs or missiles to Vietnam. If American weapons caused Chinese casualties, no matter who was at fault in the incident, the U.S. would be held responsible.

But Washington is providing Vietnam with non-lethal weapons that can document China’s territorial incursions, so they can be publicized and sent to international arbitration. The United States is in talks with Vietnam to provide refurbished surveillance aircraft. P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft were first introduced in the 1950s, and are currently being replaced in U.S. inventories by the newer P-8 Poseidon. The aircraft are equipped with sonar and radar, and are manned by a crew of 11. Although old, the aircraft are dependable aerial surveillance platforms capable of monitoring huge distances.  [The Week]

You can read more at the link, but the US and Vietnam definitely have shared interests now in the South China Sea.  The selling of non-lethal equipment I think is a smart move. If the Chinese continue to be aggressive in the SCS then the selling of lethal equipment to countries in the region can be used as a negotiation tactic to moderate Chinese behavior.

However, if I was the Vietnamese I would invest in a whole lot of anti-ship cruise missiles that are relatively cheap compared to buying expensive naval ships like the Chinese have.  Just the threat that the Chinese Navy would face severe losses from these cruise missiles if conflict was to occur may be enough to moderate Chinese behavior.  If the Vietnamese really want to send a message they could also invest in ballistic missiles that can threaten Chinese cities.