As I have long said when the Kim regime decides to return to launching long range missiles they will conduct a space launch first and claim they have the right to a peaceful space program:
This photo, released by the North’s Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station on Feb. 7, 2016, shows North Korea’s “Kwangmyongsong-4” satellite being fired from the Dongchang-ri launch site in Cholsan, North Pyongan Province.
A North Korean newspaper Wednesday published an analysis of satellite programs in China, Russia and Europe, prompting suspicions that Pyongyang is considering an intercontinental ballistic missile launch ahead of the U.S. president’s visit to South Korea this month.
The Rodong Sinmun, an official newspaper of the ruling Workers’ Party, ran a report entitled, “Fierce Competition to Operate own Navigation Satellite System” that discussed satellite development programs in China, Russia and European nations. The report was similar to an analysis published on May 6 discussing China’s successful launch of its 44th satellite.
Analysts wondered if Pyongyang was sending a message to Washington before U.S. President Donald Trump’s trip to South Korea later this month. He will visit Korea as a part of an Asian tour to attend a Group of 20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28 and 29.
You can read more at the link, but after they conduct the space launch they will then use the U.S. response, whatever that may be, as an excuse to launch longer range missile systems if a deal isn’t reached.
Kim Jong-un had previously said he was giving negotiations with the U.S. until the end of the year to reach a deal. I always figured this timeline was related to the U.S. presidential election cycle to where the regime may think President Trump does not want a provocation cycle to occur during his reelection campaign.
If Kim starts a provocation cycle before then, I think it may mean he is under tremendous pressure domestically to force the U.S. to reach a deal and the regime may think a space launch is way to pressure the U.S. to comply with their “pretend denuclearization” demands.
Like I have been saying if the North Koreans do decide to do a launch they will call it a peaceful space launch which gives their allies China and Russia cover to claim nation’s have a right to a peaceful space program. At the same time this will raise tensions to put pressure on the Trump administration to cut a deal with the North Koreans. I don’t think we have reached the point yet of a near term launch since negotiations are still going on, but I guess we will see what happens:
North Korea could be on the brink of a missile launch from a pad on its western coast, said a South Korean official on Monday.
A series of ominous signs – the foremost being the near complete restoration of a missile launch site on the western coast – is fueling speculation that the regime is gearing up to launch its first rocket since its rapprochement with first South Korea and then the United States last year – a move that could reverse a year’s worth of engagement.
Backing up a briefing made by Seoul’s spy chief, Suh Hoon, at South Korea’s National Assembly last Friday, the official said the North’s reconstruction of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, which started in February, is effectively complete, and a launch only needs a go-ahead from leader Kim Jong-un.
Sohae was the site from which the North launched its Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite in February 2016. Kim Jong-un promised South Korean President Moon Jae-in to dismantle Sohae at their Pyongyang summit last September, and some work was done that appeared to be dismantling.
Sources in Seoul had said early last month that the North could launch from Sohae not a warhead but a satellite equipped with new technology brought in from China, shaking Washington out of a protracted stalemate over denuclearization.
North Korea maintains a distinction between testing of military ballistic missiles and launching satellites, which it maintains have a peaceful, scientific purpose. But nuclear experts abroad say the fact that the same type of rockets are used for both purposes makes that difference meaningless. Missile launches of any type by Pyongyang are banned under UN Resolution 1695, adopted in 2006.
It looks like more people are beginning to catch on to my idea that the North Koreans may attempt a satellite launch:
The expert added that a more likely explanation was that the North is feigning a missile launch to press Washington for a renegotiation and would not go forward with the act since too much is at stake.
Another possibility, according to a South Korean government source who asked not to be named, is that the North is preparing to actually launch a satellite equipped with technology recently brought in from friendly countries like China.
“The last time the North shot up a satellite was in 2016 with the launch of the Kwangmyongsong-4,” the source said.
“Since then, North Korea has been focusing on obtaining satellite technology through unofficial cooperation with other countries or by hacking, and latest intelligence suggests they have completed a new reconnaissance satellite.”
North Korea maintains a distinction between military testing of its ballistic missiles and that of its satellites, though nuclear experts abroad say the fact that the same type of rockets are used for both purposes makes that difference hollow.
UN Security Council Resolution 1718 – approved unanimously by all members in 2006 – forbids any type of rocket launches from the North, be it for satellite or missile purposes.
You can read more at the link, but I thought they may attempt a satellite launch to give them plausible deniability they are testing ICBMs and say they have every right to peaceful space exploration. This also gives the Chinese and Russians some cover to shutdown any more sanctions the US may try to impose after the launch through the United Nations.
This becomes a way the Kim regime can increase tensions and put pressure back on the Trump administration with likely little consequences.
