The Moon administration asking to do this is a definite possibility, but I would be surprised if the US government agrees to an indefinite suspension. The joint exercises are a key part of maintaining combined readiness on the Korean peninsula. I guess we will see if Key Resolve gets cancelled because it has already been delayed, but cancelling all joint exercises indefinitely I just don’t see happening:
Sue Mi Terry
South Korea could push to indefinitely postpone joint military exercises with the United States in exchange for North Korea taking steps to denuclearize, a U.S. expert said Tuesday.
The allies earlier agreed to suspend the annual drills for the duration of the PyeongChang Winter Games. North Korea views the exercises as an invasion rehearsal and has protested with various provocations in the past.
Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the liberal administration of South Korean President Moon Jae-in could seek to extend the suspension and bring the U.S. and North Korea together for denuclearization negotiations.
“(The South Korean government wants) to make sure that this opening with North Korea over the Olympics leads to something and leads to perhaps U.S.-North Korea dialogue,” she told a press briefing, referring to Pyongyang’s recent agreement to participate in the Games.
“So they’re going to try very hard,” she added, “and if they cannot give concessions on the sanctions front, they have to give something, because North Korea will demand it. So I’m a little bit concerned that the Moon government might actually push for the postponement of joint military exercises.” [Yonhap]
Here is the latest call for President Trump to not visit the DMZ:
Sue Mi Terry
North Korea could feel threatened if U.S. President Donald Trump visits the demilitarized zone on the inter-Korean border next month, a U.S. expert said Friday.
Trump could include a trip to the buffer zone dividing South and North Korea when he visits Seoul from Nov. 7-8, according to news reports. There are concerns it could provoke Pyongyang amid high tensions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
“They’re seeing almost everything as a threat,” Sue Mi Terry, a former Korea analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, said during a discussion on North Korea.
She noted that Trump has called North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a “Rocket Man” on a suicide mission and threatened to “totally destroy” the country if necessary.
“They already see him as a very provocative person,” she said. “Anything that he does will be continually seen that way.”
Terry voiced strong opposition to the use of military action against North Korea, saying it could have “catastrophic consequences” for the 20 million people living in Seoul.
“I think North Korea will retaliate if there’s a military strike,” she said. “In this ‘track 2’ meeting I had with North Koreans, they emphasized that they didn’t go through this level of pain that they had gone through to acquire nuclear weapons — spending millions of dollars — just to be able to, to paraphrase their own words: ‘We’re not just going to perish without being able to use them if we think the attack for regime change is coming.'” [Yonhap]
Ms. Terry is a smart person, but I don’t understand her perspective on this. If President Trump is going to say something provocative during his trip that is going to upset the Kim regime it doesn’t matter if it happens at Panmunjom or during his planned speech to the National Assembly.
As far as her view of being against military action I disagree with. First of all, I have not heard Trump calling for regime change. President Trump’s comments about totaling destroying North Korea were made in the context of the US or its allies having to defend itself from a North Korean attack.
Secondly there is this drum beat that any military action against North Korea will lead to the destruction of Seoul which I believe is not accurate. In my opinion if the US conducted a limited strike against for example their missile manufacturing facilities, this would not lead to the destruction of Seoul that would potentially kill millions of people. The Kim regime knows destroying Seoul means a regime change war they don’t want.
I believe the Kim regime will respond, but in a more limited fashion that doesn’t lead to full scale war. Some examples are a limited artillery barrage or ballistic missile attack against US military targets. A terrorism attack within South Korea or against USFK personnel. There are many other things the North Koreans could do in response that does not trigger a full war. After their response the Kim regime can turn to the Chinese and the Russians to help them justify their response to the limited US strike to stop a full scale war from happening.
