If China would quit threatening Taiwan with naval blockades and firing missiles over the country than the U.S. would not need to send personnel to help train them in the first place:
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Milius (DDG 69) conducts a routine Taiwan Strait transit on April 16, 2023. (U.S. Navy)
China warned against continued U.S.-Taiwan cooperation Wednesday, responding to reports that the U.S. military was sending officers to help train Taiwan’s counterparts and that a delegation of defense contractors would visiting the self-ruled island next week.
“We resolutely oppose the U.S. having any form of official or military contact with China’s Taiwan region,” Zhu Fenglian, spokeswoman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a weekly press briefing in Beijing.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
As long as President Emperor Xi is in charge, I don’t think the Chinese are interested in dialogue with Taiwan when they saw how effective blunt force was to crush Hong Kong and no one did anything to stop it. They are waiting for the right moment to use force against Taiwan as well when they feel like no one can stop them as well:
Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson for the Department of State, is seen answering questions during a daily press briefing at the department in Washington on April 21, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)
A U.S. state department spokesperson on Friday echoed South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent remarks against China changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force.
Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson for the state department, also said the United States will continue to work with its allies, including South Korea, to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
“We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan and instead engage in dialogue with Taiwan,” the spokesperson told a daily press briefing.
Yonhap
You can read more at the link.
President Yoon did not even mention anything about the One China Policy, only that the status quo should stay in place with Taiwan, in other words he does not want a major war in the region. For China advocating against a major war in the region is considered meddling:
The foreign ministry strongly denounced China for committing a “serious diplomatic discourtesy” Thursday after a Chinese official branded President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent comments on Taiwan as a verbal meddling by others.
The ministry issued the statement after the Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said earlier in the day Beijing would not allow others to meddle by word, in reference to Yoon’s media interview the previous day in which he expressed opposition to any change in the status quo of the Taiwan Strait by force.
Wang also called on Seoul to adhere to the “One China” policy under the spirit of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, saying solving the Taiwan issue is solely a matter of China’s own affairs.
Seoul’s foreign ministry said Wang’s comments were “unspeakable.”
Yonhap
You can read more at the link, but it is pretty clear that China is trying to send a message to South Korea that war with Taiwan is coming and they better stay out of it.
I hope what is going on in Ukraine right now is motivating the Taiwanese to do more to improve their own defensive posture because these leaked documents make it sound like they have a lot of work to do:
Taiwan is unlikely to thwart Chinese military air superiority in a cross-strait conflict, while tactics such as China’s use of civilian ships for military purposes have eroded U.S. spy agencies’ ability to detect a pending invasion, according to leaked Pentagon assessments that contain troubling details about the self-governed island’s ability to fend off war.
The assessments state that Taiwan officials doubt their air defenses can “accurately detect missile launches,” that barely more than half of Taiwan’s aircraft are fully mission capable and that moving the jets to shelters would take at least a week – a huge problem if China launched missiles before Taiwan had a chance to disperse those planes.
The classified documents addressing a potential conflict suggest China’s air force would have a much better shot at establishing early control of the skies – a strategy that Taipei itself believes will underpin an attack – than Russia did in Ukraine.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
China spent the weekend trying to intimidate Taiwan:
China sent warships and dozens of fighter jets toward Taiwan on Saturday, the Taiwanese government said, in retaliation for a meeting between the U.S. House of Representatives speaker and the president of the self-ruled island democracy claimed by Beijing as part of its territory.
The Chinese military announced the start of three-day “combat readiness patrols” as a warning to Taiwanese who want to make the island’s de facto independence permanent. The People’s Liberation Army gave no indication whether they might include a repeat of previous exercises with missiles fired into the sea, which disrupted shipping and airline flights.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy held talks with President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday in California, adding to a series of foreign lawmakers who have met Tsai to show support in the face of Chinese intimidation. Beijing responded Friday by imposing a travel ban and financial sanctions against American groups and individuals associated with Tsai’s U.S. visit.
On Saturday, eight warships and 42 planes were detected near Taiwan, 29 of which flew across the middle line of the strait that separates it from the mainland, the island’s Ministry of Defense said. It said they included Chengdu J-10, Shenyang J-11 and Shenyang J-16 jet fighters.
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
General Minihan does offer a plausible scenario on why 2025 would be a good time for China to attack Taiwan:
China could be at war with the United States two years from now, a top Air Force general predicted in a bombastic and unusual memo to troops under his command, asserting a significantly shorter timeline before potential conflict than any other senior U.S. defense official to date.
Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who as head of Air Mobility Command oversees the service’s fleet of transport and refueling aircraft, warned personnel to speed their preparations for a potential conflict, citing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aspirations and the possibility that Americans will not be paying attention until it is too late.
“I hope I am wrong,” Minihan wrote. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
In a Taiwan crisis I would be very surprised if the North Koreans did not launch provocations in support of their Chinese allies just to divert U.S. troops and attention to the peninsula:
Seoul “should be fully prepared” for North Korean provocations in the event of a crisis between China and Taiwan, South Korea’s chief diplomat said this week.
Foreign Minister Park Jin, speaking to lawmakers Monday at a briefing for the Foreign and Unification Committee, said North Korea may engage in provocative behavior and exacerbate a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
“Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is very important for the peace and stability of our Korean Peninsula,” Park said. “Therefore, we would like to continue to work together with the U.S. while firmly maintaining the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance.”
Stars & Stripes
You can read more at the link.
