Tag: Taiwan

People definitely need to get out of their minds that a war with China in defense of Taiwan will be anything like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Thousands could die in a single strike on a U.S. aircraft carrier or other ships and that is what this war game is demonstrating:

The game umpires include two doctoral students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a former Marine captain and Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist with MIT’s Center for International Studies and author of five books and numerous articles on China’s military power. Overseeing the project is Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior advisor and retired Marine colonel.

Some variants had Japan involved from the start. The Philippines allowed U.S. basing in some iterations, but not others. Game moderators permitted U.S. strikes on mainland China in some, but not others.

Throughout the week the game always reaches a stopping point where the players know the likely outcome and, nearly always within the roughly three-week timeframe of simulated combat, it reaches a stalemate on Taiwan between U.S. and Chinese ground forces. (……)

On the first U.S. turn, the players lost an entire aircraft carrier, though it was on the board from the “baseline” opening and not that team’s choice to have it where it was located. In a version earlier in the week, the United States lost 700 aircraft over the three-week battle.

None of these provided a pretty outcome, but in each of the versions, the United States prevailed, Cancian said.

Army Times

You can read more at the link, but these war games are showing the U.S. can win in the near term such conflict at great cost, however 10 years from now would that still be the case?

This could have gone bad very easily if one of these missiles had a malfunction and hit Taiwanese territory forcing them to respond in some way:

China fired multiple missiles toward waters near northeastern and southwestern Taiwan on Thursday, the island’s Defense Ministry said, as Beijing makes good on its promise that Taipei will pay a price for hosting US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement that multiple missiles had been fired into the sea off the eastern part of Taiwan. It said all the missiles hit their target accurately.

“The entire live-fire training mission has been successfully completed and the relevant air and sea area control is now lifted,” China’s statement said. Earlier, the Eastern Theater Command said it had conducted long-range, live-fire training in the Taiwan Strait, state broadcaster CCTV reported, as part of planned military exercises around the island.

Taiwan reported Chinese long-range rockets had fallen near its islands of Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, which are in the Taiwan Strait, but located closer to the mainland than the main island of Taiwan. It later said a total of 11 Dongfeng (DF) missiles were fired to the waters north, south and east of the island between 1:56 p.m. and 4 p.m. local time (from 1:56 a.m. ET to 4 a.m. ET) on Thursday. 

The Chinese missiles flew over Taiwan Island for the first time, a Chinese military expert said on state television channel CCTV on Thursday, representing a major escalation of China’s military intimidation against Taiwan.

CNN

According to Taiwan the missiles were flying exoatmospheric and thus was not a threat to Taiwan:

The conventional missiles flew over airspace covered by Taiwanese defense missiles, said Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing.

“We hit the targets under the observation of US Aegis combat system, which means the Chinese military has solved the difficulties of hitting long-range targets on waters,” Meng said on CCTV.

The Taiwanese Defense Ministry said in a statement late Thursday night that the trajectory of the missiles was above the atmosphere and therefore posed no risk to Taiwan.

“Using the surveillance and reconnaissance systems, our military can accurately calculate the trajectory of the Dong Feng-series missiles fired by the Chinese Communist Party,” it said.

You can read more at the link, but fortunately the Taiwanese are keeping a cool head about this and not responding with test firing missiles back towards China in response.

This is making me wonder if Pelosi was going to land in Taiwan in secret and this official just blew her cover:

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan as part of her tour of Asia,according to a senior Taiwanese government official and a US official, despite warnings from Biden administration officials, who are worried about China’s response to such a high-profile visit. 

The stop — the first for a US House speaker in 25 years — is not currently on Pelosi’s public itinerary and comes at a time when US-China relations are already at a low point.

The Taiwanese official added that she is expected to stay in Taiwan overnight. It is unclear when exactly Pelosi will land in Taipei.

CNN

You can read more at the link.

It looks like the Chinese threats worked:

Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s office released an itinerary for the House Speaker’s planned trip to Asia that listed at least four stops — but made no mention of Taiwan.

Reports that the California Democrat was planning to visit the contested, self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own had sparked anger and threats in China, where officials vowed to do what was necessary to “firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Pelosi on Sunday set off for the Indo-Pacific, where she is leading a delegation of five Democratic lawmakers focused on “mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance” in the region, according to a news release from her office.

The delegation will visit Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, according to the release.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is likely a good thing to let the Chinese know exactly where the U.S. stands if they try and attack Taiwan:

President Joe Biden, speaking Monday during his first visit presidential visit to Japan, signaled an apparent end to the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity by saying the United States would defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.

“Yes,” Biden replied when asked by a reporter in Tokyo if he was willing to get involved militarily to defend the island.

“That’s the commitment we made,” he said at a press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The U.S. has maintained a “One China policy” that acknowledges Beijing’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. However, the policy doesn’t give China the right to use force to take over the island, Biden said.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.

What a massive screw up this is:

A television news channel in Taiwan apologized after erroneously reporting on Wednesday that China had launched an invasion just outside the capital Taipei, triggering alarm online.

Taipei-based Chinese Television Systems, a TV network partially owned by the Taiwanese government, ran a ticker along the bottom of the screen at 7 a.m. local time on Wednesday saying that China had attacked several areas of New Taipei City.

“New Taipei City has been hit by a Chinese Communist guided missile. Ships in Taipei Port have exploded, damaging facilities,” the graphic read. “Banqiao Station is reported to have been set on fire by explosives placed by special forces.”

The station issued an on-air apology a few hours later, explaining that the chyron had been produced for a New Taipei City Fire Department disaster-prevention video and broadcast due to a production error. CTS later announced an investigation into what it called “gross negligence,” pledging in a text message to severely punish any staff found to be responsible.

Stars & Stripes

You can read more at the link.