North Korea is once again threatening to turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire™ due to the decision to deploy a THAAD battery to the peninsula:
This photo carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on June 23, 2016 shows the country fired off the Hwasong-10 intermediate-range ballistic missile. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)’/>
North Korea on Monday warned it will take “physical” actions against South Korea and the United States over the allies’ decision to deploy an advanced U.S. missile defense system in the South.
North Korea’s military issued a strong warning that it will deliver military strikes from the moment the two countries decide on where to place the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
“We once again warn the enemies that it is the steadfast will of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) to make merciless retaliatory strikes to reduce South Korea to a sea of flames and debris once an order is issued,” the military’s artillery bureau was quoted as saying by the KCNA. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but President Park has come out to strongly defend the decision to deploy the THAAD battery to South Korea:
President Park Geun-hye on Monday mounted a strong defense of the recent decision by South Korea and the U.S. to station an advanced antimissile system here, stressing it won’t undermine the security interests of any other countries.
Park also underscored that the decision to station a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea is a “purely defense measure” to cope with growing nuclear and missile threats from a provocative North Korea.
After some five months of consultations, Seoul and Washington announced Friday that they had agreed to deploy a THAAD battery in South Korea. The announcement riled Beijing and Moscow, which have argued THAAD would hurt their security interests.
“As (South Korea) has repeatedly said, THAAD will not target any country other than North Korea, and will not encroach upon the security interests of any third country. (We) have no reason to do so,” the commander in chief said during a meeting with her senior secretaries.
“The international community should understand that Seoul does not have any intention of targeting other countries or threatening other countries,” she added.
Pointing to Pyongyang’s relentless provocations, including its weekend test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile, Park highlighted that the communist regime has been posing “explicit” threats to the South.
“Growing nuclear and missile threats are a very critical issue where the future of the Republic of Korea and the lives of our people are at stake,” she said. “As president, I have an obligation to protect our people and nation.”
The allies plan to determine where to place the THAAD battery in South Korea as early as later this month. They have faced strong opposition from local residents that are concerned about the electromagnetic waves emanating from the THAAD radar.
“(South Korea) will select the optimal site for the THAAD deployment that can certainly ensure military efficiency, and protect the safety and health (of the residents) from all problems, including the influence of electromagnetic waves,” the president said. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but North Korea making more threats to attack the country only strengthens her argument on why the THAAD battery is needed in South Korea.
I wonder how the ROK military plans to keep the location a secret? I have no doubt the location will quickly be leaked to the media one THAAD deploys to South Korea:
South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo visits an opposition party lawmaker’s office at the National Assembly in Seoul on July 8, 2016. (Yonhap)
Han responded to China’s discontent over THAAD being placed on South Korean soil and concerns that it could worsen the relationship between South Korea and China, saying the two countries should strengthen their talks.
Han said that the site for the THAAD deployment will be announced soon, but the specific location will not be made public due to military secrecy. [Yonhap]
It looks like the “Not In My Backyard” crowd has already started protesting the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system to South Korea:
The official announcement of deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system in Korea is bringing a huge backlash from residents of areas which are rumored to be candidate sites for the system.
People in the regions claim the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) will pose serious health risks to them and environmental damage due to strong electromagnetic waves.
Immediately after the announcement Friday, residents in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, and Waegwan of Chilgok County in North Gyeongsang Province, the two key candidate locations, expressed vehement opposition.
A coalition of 25 civic groups in Pyeongtaek, where the United States Forces Korea (USKF) headquarters will be moved, said they will hold a press conference on July 19 to announce their protest plans to block the possible deployment there.
“The noise and electromagnetic waves emanating from THAAD radar will pose grave health threats to residents here,” the coalition said in a statement. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but like most Korean protests these people are blatantly lying to get public sentiment behind them. Anyone can Google and find out the safe keep out zones for the THAAD radar. In fact it is published in the draft Environmental Assessment document for the THAAD unit on Guam that can be downloaded at this link. Here is an excerpt from the document that discusses the safe keep out zones for the radar:
Operation of the THAAD battery requires the following exclusion zones along +/- 90 degrees of the axis of orientation of the THAAD radar system to avoid injury to personnel and damage to equipment from electromagnetic radiation (EMR) emitted from that radar: 328 feet (100 meters) for personnel, 1,640 feet (500 meters) for equipment, and 3.4 miles (5.5 kilometers) for aircraft. An earthen berm in front of the radar further reduces the ground-level EMR exposure risks. For aircraft, a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) was established for the THAAD expeditionary mission starting in April 2013. The airspace coordination procedures for this flight restriction were documented in a Letter of Agreement between the Army, USAF, FAA, and Guam Air Route Traffic Control Center. Under Alternative 1, the TFR would continue to be used during THAAD radar operations.
So unless the THAAD radar is sitting 100 meters directly in front of someones house they will not be exposed to harmful EMR. Aircraft will need to stay 5.5 kilometers away from the radar which as the document shows on Guam they put restricted airspace measures over the radar site. These same safety measures will have to be done in Korea which I am sure USFK planners will do.
After what has seemed like never-ending negotiations the US and the ROK have agreed to finally deploy a THAAD missile defense system to South Korea:
Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy Ryu Je-seung, right, shakes hands with Eighth U.S. Army commander Lt. Gen. Thomas Vandal after a joint press conference at the defense ministry building in southern Seoul, Friday. The two agreed to deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here. / Yonhap
South Korea and the United States agreed to deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, the two allies announced Friday, drawing protests from China and throwing the Korean Peninsula into geopolitical turmoil.
“The Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States made an alliance decision to deploy THAAD to U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) as a defensive measure to ensure the security of the ROK and its people,” the Ministry of Defense and the USFK said in a joint statement.
It said the deployment of the advanced U.S. missile defense system is to protect alliance military forces from North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile threats.
The two are “working closely to ensure the swift deployment of THAAD” and will develop specific operational procedures, it said.
Several hours after the announcement, China denounced both Seoul and Washington, with its foreign ministry expressing “strong discontent and firm opposition” against the two countries’ agreement. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but according to the article the locations being considered for hosting the THAAD site are Pyeongtaek, Wonju, Waegwan and Eumseong County in North Chungcheong Province. It will be interesting to see if the Korean left will try and demagogue and launch Camp Humphreys expansion style protests against the building of the THAAD site.
It will also be interesting to see if the Chinese try to retaliate against the ROK in some way? Considering how the Chinese continue to funnel cash and goods to the Kim regime despite sanctions, they have no creditability to oppose this deployment.
Considering the short time of flight of incoming enemy missiles, missile defense operators in South Korea do not have time to call the South Korean Defense Minister for approval to engage an incoming target. It is also pretty ridiculous that there is even a debate on whether a missile from North Korea projected to impact within South Korea should be considered a wartime act or not:
A debate is escalating over command of THAAD, the U.S. anti-missile defense system, and whether the United States or South Korea is to have the final say on a response in the case of a North Korea attack.
South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo told parliamentarians Tuesday in a scenario of a North Korean ballistic missile attack, Seoul has four to eight minutes to respond, local newspaper Kyunghyang Shinmun reported.
“A very sophisticated operation management procedure has been developed,” Han said.
Han’s response, however, evaded a question from Justice Party spokesman Kim Jong-dae, who had asked Han which military would issue the command to intercept an incoming missile, Yonhap reported.
Han later added South Korea holds “operational control” during peacetime and U.S. Forces Korea plays a role in support of that strategy.
But Han did not say whether a fired missile coming from North Korea qualifies as an action of peacetime or wartime. [UPI]
The Patriot PAC-3 is designed to shootdown short range ballistic missiles not an intermediate range missile which the category the Musudan falls under. That is what the THAAD system is for:
A medium-range ballistic missile launched Wednesday by North Korea flew at an average speed of Mach 11.3, or 11.3 times faster than the speed of sound, according to an analysis of a timeline seen on a monitor at the launch site.
The hypersonic speed of Mach 11.3 has sharply raised concerns about the capabilities of the Patriotic Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile defense system that the South Korean military has purchased to upgrade its existing PAC-2 missile defense system. The PAC-3 flies at Mach 3.5 to 5 and intercepts incoming missiles at altitudes of up to 40 kilometers (25 miles). [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but a professor at the Korea National Defense University explains in the article that THAAD can shoot down the Musudan. This is all the more reason why both Japan and the ROK should look at either purchasing their own THAAD system or deploying one into theater from the US.
Yonhap is reporting that the deployment of THAAD to South Korea was not a major issue discussed during recent diplomatic meetings with Russia:
South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se (L) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov sign an agreement in Moscow on June 13, 2016, on the exchanges between their agencies for 2016-2017. In their bilateral talks, the two diplomats agreed to cooperate for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, Seoul officials said. (Yonhap)
The top diplomats of South Korea and Russia barely discussed the controversial issue of deploying an advanced U.S. missile defense system on Korean soil during their talks earlier this week, a Seoul official said.
The senior official told South Korean reporters during a luncheon in St. Petersburg on Tuesday that the topic of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system was raised in the meeting between South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, but only in passing.
“(The Russian side) mentioned a confrontational structure in Asia but barely talked about it,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “This showed (Moscow’s) will to focus more on bilateral relations and the North Korean nuclear issue.”
Russia and China have strongly opposed the possible deployment of a THAAD battery to South Korea, claiming it would undermine the strategic balance in the region. Seoul and Washington insist the missile defense system, if placed in the South, would be purely defensive in the face of North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile threats. [Yonhap]
You can read the rest at the link, but in the past the Russian ambassador to North Korea complained that THAAD could potentially be used to shoot down Russian missiles fired at South Korea.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out because it appears that the Chinese are all in, in regards to their South China Sea claims, is the US and its regional allies all in as well to deter them?
As a rising power, China is roughly charting the same course the Americans and Soviets did 50 years ago. China has land-based missiles, bombers, and missile submarines. And China is establishing its own bastion — in the South China Sea. This sea grab is a logical response to China’s strategic dilemma.
China’s coming submarine deployment is allegedly in response to the deployment of the American THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea. While it is true that the U.S. is deploying THAAD on the Korean peninsula, the system can only be used against missiles targeting South Korea — coming from China’s ally, North Korea. China’s explanation is designed to make Beijing look like the victim. But China, which has its main submarine missile base adjacent to the South China Sea, has been preparing to sail its missile submarines there for years.
China’s aggression in the South China Sea is not likely merely for aggression’s sake, or the result of a rising power feeling its oats. China is acting out of strategic necessity, something even more dangerous because it feels it is doing something because it must, not simply because it can. The ruling Chinese Communist Party has made the calculation that the strategic benefits — having a safe location for its nuclear missile submarines — outweighs the negative attention the country is receiving worldwide.
What does that mean? It means that Beijing is not going to back down. Chinese nuclear weapons, which are the ultimate guarantor of Communist Party rule, are involved, and anything crucial to the survival of the regime is non-negotiable. Barring a new nuclear strategy — perhaps one that rules out submarines and relies on land-based missiles hidden in tunnels — controlling the sea is a must. Beijing has access to other stretches of the Pacific, but they can be easily accessed by traditional rivals including Taiwan and Japan. The South China Sea, for example, is adjacent to a number of relatively poor, weak states. [The Week]
