Tag: THAAD

Residents from the southeastern town of Seongju and nearby Gimcheon rally in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul on May 8, 2017, to urge the U.S. Army to stop introducing equipment for the deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system to a former golf course in Seongju. They were blocked from presenting a basket of melons (front) to the embassy, as quality melons are a specialty produced in Seongju. In April, U.S. troops began deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense near the town, about 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul. (Yonhap)

It will be interesting to see if this fire was started intentionally to threaten the THAAD site in South Korea:

Another fire broke out late on Sunday near the site where the U.S. is installing the controversial anti-missile system called THAAD. It started at around 7:30 p.m. near the top of a mountain located closely to the golf course picked for the THAAD deployment in the country’s southern town of Seongju.

Firefighters are working to bring the fire under control but are having trouble in doing so due to darkness. The exact cause of the fire has not been confirmed yet.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Once again people are confusing the term missile defense system with THAAD:

North Korea is believed to have designed its series of missile tests in a way that can beat THAAD and other U.S. missile defense systems aimed at protecting South Korea and Japan, according to a congressional report Thursday.

The Congressional Research Service said in a report cited by the Washington Times that the North test-launched missiles last year in flights precisely designed to avoid interception by rocketing them into much higher altitudes.

That was aimed at getting the reentry warhead to descend at a steeper angle and faster speed, “making it potentially more difficult to intercept with a missile defense system,” the CRS report said, according to the newspaper.

The North has also demonstrated an ability to launch a salvo attack with multiple missiles, it said.

“This is consistent with a possible goal of being able to conduct large ballistic missile attacks with large raid sizes, a capability that could make it more challenging for a missile defense system to destroy each incoming warhead,” the CRS report said.  [Yonhap]

First of all of course if North Korea masses enough ballistic missiles at one location and there is not enough Patriot and THAAD interceptors to shoot them down then ballistic missiles will get through.  This is not a missile defense problem it is a math problem.  The other thing people need to realize is if the Kim regime masses missiles in one location to defeat a missile defense battery that means it has less in its inventory to use in other locations.

Secondly there are different types of missile defense systems which THAAD is one part of.  Patriot is a lower tier system that cannot do engagement outside the atmosphere.  THAAD is a system that can do engagement outside the atmosphere to intercept missiles fired at higher altitudes as cited in the article.

When I get time I will have to read the actual CRS report because what the media claims and what is actually in a report are often very different things.

Oh Young-jin over at the Korea Times seems to have a better understanding of President Trump than the rest of Korea:

Let’s calm ourselves down.

It’s exasperating to hear U.S. President Trump demand South Korea pay $1 billion for a missile interceptor owned and operated by the U.S. After all, the two allies cut a deal by which Korea provided land for a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, while the U.S. paid for the rest ― hardware and maintenance.

It’s tempting to shout back at Trump and tell him that we don’t want it so he can take it back.

But here are some sobering questions.

Can we defend ourselves without U.S. forces? The South excels the North in the size of economy many times and is more than double it in terms of population. So the answer to this question is yes, we can.

But if so, what extra cost would we have to pay for their absence? Billions of dollars would be needed to make up for the U.S. Forces Korea with its 28,000 American troops stationed here. They serve as a tripwire to bring in bigger and more powerful reinforcements ― the so-called extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) included ― from the U.S. in the event of a war. The tab for this is uncountable because it has worked as the bedrock for Korea’s sense of security for decades.

Would you be willing to pay that extra cost? The bulk of the budget for welfare, infrastructure and other key state affairs would have to be diverted to cover our own defense spending. This means bigger tax bills for fewer services. Then, the security void that would be created by the U.S. withdrawal would have foreign investors rethink their plans involving Korea.

THAAD can turn this chain of hypotheses into reality. (……….) Now, it is important to think of how Trumpian arithmetic works.

Trump is a “successful” businessman and showbiz celebrity.

Therefore, he shuns money-losing businesses and sticks to the “beneficiary-pays” principle. This characteristic reflects his demand for Korea’s THAAD payment as he sees the U.S. as a benefactor and Korea as a beneficiary so he thinks it is natural for Seoul to pay.  [Korea Times]

You can read the rest at the link, but Mr. Oh advocates for paying Trump off by having a pro-rated cost for use of the THAAD system each year. This gets back to my belief this whole topic is about the USFK cost sharing negotiations next year which President Trump wants the Korean government to understand they need to pay more for advanced US capabilities.

By the way I still love Mr. Oh’s email:  foolsdie5@gmail.com.  

A stone tower of peace stands on the roadside in Seongju, 296 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on May 3, 2017, as a symbol of protest against the deployment of the U.S. THAAD missile defense system in the county. (Yonhap)

Like I have said before President Trump’s comments about paying more for the THAAD system is setting conditions for next year’s negotiations for USFK cost sharing:

U.S. President Donald Trump should know that South Korea has already paid more than what he has billed the country for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, analysts said Tuesday.

Trump has insisted that Korea pay $1 billion for the anti-missile shield and his top aides also claim that the two countries should renegotiate the terms of the deployment agreement.

On top of the provision of the land for the missile defense unit, South Korea has already sustained huge damage from economic retaliation by China.

Company officials and analysts say that the value of losses Korea has suffered from retaliatory steps has to have topped $1 billion. They expect the amount to snowball to as high as $20 billion if friction over THAAD is not addressed.  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

Instead of making threats about the THAAD deployment how about Beijing do something about the Kim regime that is the reason for it being in South Korea in the first place?:

China on Tuesday warned of stern measures against the ongoing deployment of an advanced U.S. missile defense system in South Korea.

“China calls for an immediate stop to the THAAD deployment on the Korean Peninsula,” China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said during a regular press briefing.

“China will pursue protecting its interests going forward by taking the necessary measures in a stern manner.”

He was speaking in response to the U.S.’ announcement that the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery being installed on a former golf course in the southern county of Seongju is “operational and has the ability to intercept North Korean missiles and defend” South Korea.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

In this Washington Post interview the likely next President of South Korea, Moon Jae-in states that he is not too happy with the deployment of the THAAD missile defense system before he becomes President:

With Moon pledging to review the Park government’s decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) antimissile system, the U.S. military has acted swiftly to get it up and running. This has sparked widespread criticism here that the United States is trying to make it difficult, if not impossible, for Moon to reverse it.

The final components for THAAD were taken to the site in the middle of the night last week, triggering protests, and the system became operational Monday. It is designed to shoot down North Korean missiles, but many in South Korea fear it will make them more of a target.

“It is not desirable for the [caretaker] South Korean government to deploy THAAD hastily at this politically sensitive time, with the presidential election approaching, and without going through the democratic process, an environmental assessment or a public hearing,” said Moon, sitting on the floor in a Korean restaurant after an evening rally in Seongnam, south of Seoul.

“Would it happen this way in the United States? Could the administration make a unilateral decision without following democratic procedures, without ratification or agreement by Congress?”

Privately, Moon aides say they are “furious” about what they see as the expedited installation of THAAD. U.S. Forces Korea said the deployment is in line with plans to have the system operational as soon as possible.  [Washington Post]

You can read more at the link, but the US President makes decisions all the time without ratification or agreement by Congress.

A group of scientists is claiming THAAD cannot effectively defend South Korea from ballistic missile attack:

Another scientist, David Wright, co-director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program, said that a salvo of North Korean short-range missiles could overwhelm THAAD.

The 10 million people living in Seoul will also not be protected by THAAD, since it is being installed 125 miles south of the city. “It cannot engage missiles fired at Seoul, so it offers no additional protection of the city,” David Wright told the Associated Press.

“We have a layered defense systems, which is shared with the Republic of South Korea and Japan,” Commander Gary Ross, a Pentagon spokesperson, told Business Insider in response to whether or not Seoul was protected. “But we don’t discuss specific weapons systems.”

As it stands, US Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile defenses provide protection for Seoul, though it has similar limitations to THAAD.

One scientist was even more wary of THAAD’s capabilities. Harris’ statement about THAAD is “technically incorrect,”Theodore Postol, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said.”The THAAD interceptor is very easily defeated by either causing a missile to tumble end over end or by intentionally fragmenting a rocket into pieces.”

In the case of a saturation attack, or a large volume of missiles as Postol described, THAAD’s defense capabilities “can be expected to be very low, probably zero or close to that,” Postol said.  [Business Insider]

You can read more at the link, but of course if North Korea masses enough ballistic missiles at one location and there is not enough Patriot and THAAD interceptors to shoot them down then ballistic missiles will get through.  When it comes to Seoul, North Korea can already destroy Seoul with artillery why waste ballistic missiles by shooting at it?

It seems they would want to use their ballistic missiles to target areas further to the south that their artillery systems cannot reach.  Additionally as mentioned in the article THAAD is not the only missile defense system in South Korea with Patriot batteries deployed across the peninsula.  THAAD has never been sold as being a magic force field to protect all of South Korea, it is part of a layered missile defense system to protect the country.

As I figured the statement made by President Trump in regards to South Korea paying for THAAD is related to upcoming US-ROK cost sharing negotiations:

National Security Adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster said Sunday that the U.S. will indeed pay for the roughly $1 billion THAAD missile defense system in South Korea, amid neighboring North Korea’s repeated ballistic test launches.

“What I told our South Korean counterpart is until any renegotiation, that the deals in place, we’ll adhere to our word,” McMaster told “Fox News Sunday.”

He spoke days after President Trump said South Korea should pay for the anti-missile system and hours after Seoul said that McMaster had assured its chief national security officer, Kim Kwan-jin, about the deal.

“The last thing I would ever do is contradict the president of the United States,” McMaster also told Fox News. “And that’s not what it was. What the president has asked us to do, is to look across all of our alliances and to have appropriate burden sharing-responsibility sharing. We’re looking at that with our great ally South Korea, we’re looking at that with NATO.”  [Fox News]

You can read more at the link.