As expected the United Nations sanctions in response to North Korea’s nuclear test have been watered down by the Russians and the Chinese. The cuts in oil imports and ban on textile exports will inconvenience the Kim regime, but I see nothing in these sanctions that will be a game changer in regards to changing the current status quo on the peninsula which is what the Chinese and Russians want to maintain:
Nikki Haley, left, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and Liu Jieyi, right, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, vote in favor of a Security Council resolution to impose fresh sanctions on North Korea over its latest nuclear test at the UN headquarters in New York on Monday. [XINHUA/YONHAP]The UN Security Council on Monday unanimously adopted new sanctions against North Korea following its sixth nuclear test, imposing a cap on exports of crude oil to the country, though it fell short of a complete ban.
The 15-member council based in New York approved Resolution 2375, which imposes a cap on the supply, sales or transfer of crude oil to North Korea to the level of the past 12 months, some 4 million barrels, and limits exports of refined petroleum products to the country to 2 million barrels a year. It also bans the sale of condensates and natural gas liquids to the North.
However, the latest resolution fell short of the complete oil embargo called for in an earlier U.S.-drafted resolution, which would have needed the support of veto-wielding members China and Russia.
The resolution, though considered a watered-down version of the U.S. draft, will reduce oil provided to North Korea by around 30 percent, according to the U.S. mission to the United Nations, and cut off over 55 percent of refined petroleum products going to the country. China is the largest supplier of crude oil to the North.
It also includes a ban on North Korean textile exports, which was the country’s second largest export category in 2016 after coal and other minerals, and is expected to reduce its revenues by up to $800 million.
The latest resolution does not include North Korean leader Kim Jong-un or his sister on its blacklist, as initially proposed. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
Peace in our time with North Korea is just around the corner, US ambassador to North Korea former NBA basketball player Dennis Rodman is on the case:
With tensions brewing between the leaders of the United States and North Korea, one man believes he can help keep the peace.
Former NBA star Dennis Rodman hopes to “straighten things out” between President Donald Trump and supreme leader Kim Jong Un, two men Rodman calls friends.
He appeared on “Good Morning Britain” via satellite from Los Angeles on Wednesday and was asked about his relationship with Kim and the multiple trips to North Korea.
However, Rodman feels if Trump makes the first move, positive results could come of it. (………)
“I think if the president even tries to reach out for Kim, I think it would be a great possibility things can happen,” he said, adding that Trump and Kim don’t have to be friends, just start a dialogue. [Star-Telegram]
Considering that the Blue House cannot even get the remaining four THAAD launchers to the site at Seongju blockaded by protesters, could you imagine the size of the blockade that would happen to any location hosting tactical nuclear weapons? However if the US and the ROK wanted to get China and North Korea’s attention reintroducing tactical nuclear weapons would be one way doing it:
Two B-1B Lancer bombers from Guam and four F-35B stealth fighter jets from U.S. bases in Japan fly over Japan’s air space on Thursday after the United States deployed its strategic assets to South Korea for a live firing exercise near the inter-Korean border, in response to the North’s intermediate-range ballistic missile launch Tuesday. [YONHAP]The Blue House dismissed the possibility of bringing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea after reports got out that Korean Defense Minister Song Young-moo mentioned the idea in a meeting with his counterparts in Washington.
“We have not discussed anything related to the tactical nuclear weapons in this administration,” said a senior government official of the Blue House. “The Korean government respects the international efforts on nonproliferation and its policies have been and will be in line with these efforts. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
So what is South Korean President Moon Jae-in going to do after this latest provocation? Just last month he said a red line for him would be if North Korea developed a nuclear weapon that could be outfitted on an ICBM and that is what the Kim regime is claiming they have done:
North Korea said Sunday that it has successfully conducted a test of a hydrogen bomb that can be loaded into its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in what could be the most powerful detonation.
In an “important” announcement, North Korea said that it carried out the sixth nuclear test at 12:00 p.m. (Pyongyang Time), calling it a “perfect” success.
The announcement came hours after an artificial earthquake with a 5.7 magnitude was detected near North Korea’s nuclear site in the northeastern area. [Yonhap]
Here is what Moon Jae-in’s response is to crossing a “red line”, more sanctions:
South Korea strongly condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test Sunday, vowing to push for fresh and the most powerful sanctions by the U.N. Security Council to completely isolate the communist state.
“President Moon Jae-in said the country will never allow North Korea to continue advancing its nuclear and missile technologies,” Moon’s key security adviser Chung Eui-yong said at a press briefing on the outcome of the National Security Council (NSC) meeting held earlier in the day. [Yonhap]
The Japanese Prime Minister’s word are in line with Moon’s in regards to taking North Korea to the UN Security Council:
The nuclear test was confirmed by the Japanese government, which said the North had conducted the blast, but criticism of the test was rife around the globe.
In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe slammed the test as “absolutely unacceptable” and vowed a tough response at the United Nations. [Japan Times]
Some how I doubt the Kim regime is impressed by threats of taking them to the UN Security Council. I guess we will see if the nuclear test will be enough to get the ROK government to move the blockade preventing the installment of the remaining four THAAD launchers in Seongju.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly inspecting the loading of a hydrogen bomb onto a new intercontinental ballistic missile, according to North Korea’s state media, a claim that some outside experts doubt but one that intensifies already high levels of concern on the Korean Peninsula. [AP/YONHAP]It appears this and other issues are reaching a boiling point with President Trump who heavily criticized President Moon over Twitter:
South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!
It appears that President Trump is about to put significant pressure on South Korea over the US-ROK Free Trade Agreement despite the nuclear test:
On trade, the president’s top economic advisers remain deeply divided over a possible withdrawal from the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement, as negotiators from both countries struggle to rewrite the five-year-old deal.
In recent days, a frustrated Mr. Trump has pushed his staff to take bold action against a host of governments, including the one in Seoul, that he has accused of unfair trade practices. But many of his more moderate advisers, including the chairman of the National Economic Council, Gary D. Cohn, believe that such a move could prompt a trade war that could hurt the United States economy.
An industry publication, Inside U.S. Trade, first reported late Friday that the administration was considering withdrawing from the treaty as early as next week.
“Discussions are ongoing, but we have no announcements at this time,” a White House spokeswoman said in an email.
But Mr. Trump, asked during a trip to the Gulf Coast on Saturday whether he was talking with his advisers about the trade deal, said: “I am. It’s very much on my mind.”
The idea of potentially withdrawing seems to have been prompted by the breakdown in negotiations between South Korean officials and the United States Trade Representative, Robert E. Lighthizer, an American official with knowledge of the situation said. [New York Times]
I think a country that should be concerned about US economic retaliation is China if President Trump follows through on a threat to cut all trade with nations doing business with North Korea:
In recent days, the president has said more sanctions, coupled with implied and explicit threats of military action, would motivate Pyongyang to change its behavior.
The Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said on Sunday that he planned to draft a new sanctions package that would cut economic ties with anyone who did business with North Korea.
“There’s a lot we can do to cut them off economically, much more than we’ve done,” Mr. Mnuchin said, speaking on “Fox News Sunday.” He called Pyongyang’s actions “unacceptable” and stressed the need for stronger steps.
Mr. Trump went so far on Sunday as to threaten to stop “all trade with any country doing business with North Korea,” an extremely unlikely prospect that, if carried out, would have cataclysmic consequences for the global economy. China is just one of the dozens of countries that trade with the North. [New York Times]
With 90% of trade into North Korea going through China it is pretty obvious the only way for sanctions to work is to focus on China. However, the consequences of an embargo on Chinese made products would have significant repercussions on the US economy until manufacturers could reestablish product lines in other countries. Because of this it seems the sanctions on China need to be incremental to give manufacturers enough time to move out of China.
The United States is considering, in addition to other options, stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.
Here is what China had to say about the nuclear test:
China urged North Korea to stop its “wrong” actions, after the reclusive said it had a successful test of hydrogen bomb that can be mounted onto its inter-continental ballistic missiles on Sunday.
In a statement on its website, China’s Foreign Ministry said China resolutely opposed and strongly condemned North Korea’s actions, and urged the country to respect U.N. Security Council resolutions.
North Korea “has ignored the international community’s widespread opposition, again carrying out a nuclear test. China’s government expresses resolute opposition and strong condemnation toward this,” the ministry said in the statement. [Korea Times]
Judging by this statement it doesn’t appear China is prepared to do much against North Korea in response to the nuclear test. The coming days should be interesting to see how the Trump administration responds. It is pretty clear increased sanctions are going to happen, but will there be any military response as well?
This is turning into what seems a monthly activity, North Korea shoots a missile and the US military responds with a practice bombing strike:
Two days after North Korea flew a missile over Japan, the United States and South Korea staged their own show of force with state-of-the-art stealth fighters Thursday.
Four US F-35B fighter jets joined two US B-1B bombers and four South Korean F-15 fighter jets in the joint US-South Korean flyover of the Korean Peninsula, an official with the South Korean air force told CNN.
The exercise was designed to “strongly counter North Korea’s repeated ballistic missile tests and development of nuclear weapons,” the official said.
In a statement, the air force said the US bombers flew out of Guam and four stealth fighter jets from a US Marine Corps base in Japan.
They conducted a mock bombing drill, which simulated a surgical strike of key enemy facilities, over the Pilsung Range in the eastern province of Gangwon. [CNN]
From my anecdotal conversations with South Koreans they were more worried about what President Trump starting a war than what Kim Jong-un. However, as recent events have shown it appears that President Trump like past presidents has come to the conclusion like many South Koreans that war with North Korea would be too deadly for all involved for anyone to start one:
Sirens wailed across Seoul and other South Korean cities on Wednesday, signaling the start of a nationwide civil-defense drill to prepare for a possible threat from the North.
But Lee Buny, a 42-year-old broadcast writer, was more interested in getting to work than finding a bomb shelter. Like many South Koreans, she’s used to threatening rhetoric from the North but doesn’t believe the communist state will ever follow through on threats to conduct an attack on the divided peninsula.
“I’m not worried because it’s the same story I’ve heard since I was born. North Korea keeps saying the same thing over and over again,” she said. “I don’t think North Korea will do anything.”
South Korea regularly holds civil-defense drills to make sure its citizens know what to do in case of an emergency such as a national disaster or an attack from the North, which is believed to have tens of thousands of soldiers and a massive artillery force poised near the heavily fortified border that sits just 35 miles from Seoul. [Stars & Stripes]
CNN has a long article published advocating for a freeze deal with North Korea by suspending US-ROK military exercises. As I have long said suspending or degrading the US-ROK alliance is a long term goal of China. Suspending the upcoming UFG military exercises will only invite more belligerent behavior by North Korea by rewarding bad behavior and further advance China’s strategic goal of ending the US-ROK alliance:
In an editorial Tuesday, nationalistic state-run tabloid Global Times said South Korea should “act as a buffer” between the US and North Korea and urged Seoul to halt the upcoming joint military exercise.
The dual freeze approach put forward by China and Russia often “gets a bad rap” in Washington because of who backs it, said Delury. “But it’s a way for both sides to take a step back, lower the temperature (and) explore a diplomatic option.”
Zhao said such a freeze could “have prevented North Korea from fast advancing their missile programs, especially from acquiring an ICBM capability so quickly.”
However, Pinkston described such a deal as a “completely asymmetric,” pointing out that regular military exercises held by North Korea and China would not be covered by it. [CNN]
You can read more at the link, but what I think the US should do is say they would sign up for a freeze deal if the punishment for non-compliance by North Korea is the authorization of preemptive strikes to take out their nuclear and missile programs. The North Koreans would never sign up for such a deal because like past agreements they fully intend to violate it at a time of their choosing. However, offering this condition shows the US attempted to negotiate and the North Koreans were the ones that would not agree to a deal.
This is very interesting that the Chinese government has apparently given the US the go ahead to attack North Korea in response to a strike against US soil, but not to the extent that it leads to regime change:
China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned on Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.
The Global Times newspaper is not an official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, but in this case its editorial probably does reflect government policy and can be considered “semi-official,” experts said. (…..)
“China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral,” it added. “If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.” [Stars & Stripes]
Secretary of State Tillerson provides some context in regards to President Trump’s recent comments about North Korea:
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson played down President Donald Trump’s incendiary warning to North Korea on Wednesday, saying he was just trying to send a strong message in language its leader would understand.
Tillerson, speaking to reporters before landing in Guam, a U.S.-held Pacific island that Pyongyang threatened to strike, said he does not believe there is an imminent threat from North Korea.
“I think Americans should sleep well at night, have no concerns about this particular rhetoric of the last few days,” he said.
Trump on Tuesday warned North Korea it would face “fire and fury” if it threatens the United States, prompting the nuclear-armed nation to say it was considering firing missiles at Guam.
“I think what the president was just reaffirming is that the United States has the capability to fully defend itself from any attack, and our allies, and we will do so,” Tillerson said.
The international community had a “pretty good week” with respect to North Korea, he said, citing new U.N. sanctions and strong statements coming out of a meeting of world leaders in Asia.
“In response to that, North Korea’s rhetoric is just ratcheted up, louder and louder and more threatening,” Tillerson told reporters. “So I think the president, what the president is doing is sending a strong message to North Korea in language that Kim Jong Un would understand, because he doesn’t seem to understand diplomatic language.” [CNBC]
You can read more at the link, but the media is of course in full freak out mode not because of Kim Jong-un, but because of President Trump. My guess is that President Trump in an unconventional way is trying to make it clear to Kim Jong-un to not miscalculate North Korea’s response to the recent UN sanctions that were passed. Additionally I think the President may be sending a message to China to make sure North Korea does not miscalculate as well because it could lead to an outcome the Chinese leadership does not want to happen.
Remember that the Ulchi Focus Lens US-ROK military exercise is coming up later this month which is typically when a North Korean provocation cycle happens. Whatever the North Koreans have planned this year they may have to be reassess based off of President Trump’s warning.
The majority of Americans may support defending South Korea if attacked, but currently only a minority of 40% support any preemptive military action:
More than 60 percent of Americans are in favor of sending troops to defend South Korea in the event of an attack by North Korea, a survey showed Monday, indicating a strengthened commitment toward the Asian ally.
The survey, conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs with support from the Korea Foundation, found 62 percent of Americans favored the use of U.S. troops if North Korea invaded South Korea, the first time there was a majority since the first survey in 1990.
The council attributed the spike to the public’s sense of a heightened threat from North Korea.
The survey was conducted on a weighted national sample of 2,020 adults living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between June 27 and July 19. Some of the respondents are presumed to have been aware of North Korea’s first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile on July 4.
The ICBM had the range to strike Alaska or Hawaii, according to experts.
According to the survey, 75 percent of the respondents viewed North Korea’s nuclear program as a critical threat, up 15 percentage points from last year and 20 points from 2015.
The council said it was the largest on-year increase for a potential threat mentioned in this year’s survey.
North Korea’s nuclear program ranked among the top threats facing the country, it added.
On the policy options to stop the North’s nuclear weapons program, imposing tighter economic sanctions on the country won the most support with 76 percent, followed by imposing sanctions on Chinese companies doing business with North Korea at 68 percent.
The other options were conducting airstrikes on nuclear production facilities (40 percent), sending U.S. troops to destroy nuclear facilities (28 percent), accepting that North Korea will possess nuclear weapons in exchange for producing no more (21 percent), and accepting that North Korea will produce more nuclear weapons (11 percent). [Yonhap]
