Tag: United States

I personally always thought the joint exercises would be restarted in time to execute Key Resolve 2019 because I never believed the Kim regime was were serious about real denuclearization:

The U.S. military will move ahead with all future military exercises on the Korean Peninsula, Defense Secretary James N. Mattis said Tuesday, suggesting that America’s brief suspension of the drills as a show of “good faith” toward North Korea has not paid dividends in the struggling denuclearization talks with Pyongyang.

“We have no plans at this time to suspend any more exercises,” Mr. Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon, less than three months after President Trump labeled the U.S.-South Korean drills “provocative” and ordered them temporarily halted following his unprecedented face-to-face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Mr. Mattis made the announcement at a rare press conference with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Marine Gen. Joseph F. Dunford, during which the two also weighed in on a range of other topics, including efforts to stamp out the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and the U.S. role in battling Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.  [Washington Times via a reader tip]

You can read more at the link, but supposedly the President received a hostile letter from the Butcher of the Cheonan, Kim Yong-chol that caused this announcement:

After the announcement it appears the ROK government may want to play delay games with restarting the joint exercises:

Resumption or suspension of joint military drills between South Korea and the United States is subject to discussions between the allies, an official from Seoul’s presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday.

“As of now, the issue has not been discussed between South Korea and the United States,” Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom told a daily press briefing.  (……)

“It is an issue that should be discussed and decided by South Korea and the U.S. while reviewing the progress in the denuclearization of North Korea,” the Cheong Wa Dae official said.  [Yonhap]

I expect that the Moon administration will come out of his upcoming summit with Kim Jong-il offering some minor concession to entice the Trump administration to believe the Kim regime is serious about denuclearization.  Regardless I would be surprised if Key Resolve 2019 does not happen.  I guess we will see what happens.

The message President Moon should bring with him is very simple, get rid of the nukes if you want sanctions dropped:

South Korean President Moon Jae-in will likely seek to mediate a breakthrough in talks between the United States and North Korea when he visits Pyongyang for a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a Seoul official said Sunday.

The presidential aide highlighted the importance of Moon’s role in advancing apparently stalled talks on the North’s denuclearization following the cancellation of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to the North scheduled for this week.

“I believe President Moon’s role has only become greater,” the official from the presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said when asked about any possible change to Moon’s scheduled trip after U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday abruptly called off Pompeo’s visit.

Trump cited a lack of “sufficient progress with respect to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

Moon admin: Setting up liaison ofc at Gaesong is "sovereignty issue" "why must (we) get US permission on every little thing?" "A thick water stream is flowing haughtily; sanctions controversy is not a big obstacle." Sanctions is but "a small problem."https://t.co/hFmVf1NQJ7

— Tara O (@DrTaraO) August 23, 2018

This is just another indication that President Trump is not about to sign up for a “pretend denuclearization” deal with the North Koreans like Seoul, Beijing, and Moscow want him to do:

South Korea on Saturday called the U.S. decision to call off a trip to North Korea by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unfortunate and said that continued diplomacy was most crucial in resolving the nuclear standoff with Pyongyang.

The statement by the Foreign Ministry in Seoul came hours after President Donald Trump directed Pompeo to delay his trip because of what he saw as a lack of progress on nuclear disarmament talks with the North. Trump also said the nuclear negotiations with North Korea have been hampered by the lack of support from China, the North’s only major ally that’s engaged in an intensifying trade dispute with the United States.

While describing the delayed trip as a setback, the ministry said it would be most important for the allies to pursue “substantial progress” on denuclearization. South Korea expects China to continue serving a “constructive role” in international efforts to solve the nuclear crisis and noted that Beijing continues to express commitment to fully implement sanctions against the North, the ministry said.

“While we consider the delay of the visit to North Korea as unfortunate, we believe it’s most important for the North Korea-U.S. dialogue including Secretary Pompeo’s visits to North Korea to contribute to substantial progress in complete denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace regime in the Korean Peninsula.”  [Associated Press]

You can read more at the link, but what is going on is that I think President Trump is sending a message to not only North Korea, but to Beijing and Seoul as well.  China is not strictly enforcing sanctions on North Korea and even the South Koreans have not been effectively enforcing sanctions either.  This is going to come down to who is going to blink first because the North Koreans will not commit to real denuclearization unless sanctions are fully enforced on them.  As long as other countries like China continue to not strictly enforce sanctions the Kim regime will feel no expediency to denuclearize at the pace the Trump administration wants.

we are nearing the point where the u.s. will need to decide whether to acknowledge that the dprk isn’t disarming and never agreed to, or get angry that the dprk is breaking promises it never made https://t.co/NyMRRAq35b

— Gerry Doyle (@mgerrydoyle) August 19, 2018

So will this be the visit where the Trump administration gives in and allows sanctions to be dropped against North Korea for little to nothing in return?  I guess we will see:

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s upcoming Pyongyang visit is expected to break the ongoing political stalemate surrounding the timeline of North Korea’s denuclearization, experts said Monday.

The sign of hope comes at a time when no outstanding progress has been made over the issue following the historic June 12 summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

A specific timeline for Pompeo’s visit to the North Korean capital has yet to be confirmed. But with U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton saying recently that Pompeo will “soon” make his fourth visit to Pyongyang, expectations are he will visit the regime sometime between the end of this month and the beginning of next month.

“Pompeo has failed to generate specific outcomes over the denuclearization dialogue with North Korea during his previous visits to Pyongyang,” said Kim Sang-ki, director at the Korea Institute for National Unification’s policy division.

“My view is that his upcoming visit is aimed at creating tangible achievements to put an end to the ongoing deadlock in denuclearization talks with North Korea. In this regard, Washington may push for conditions that would lead to declaring an end to the 1950-53 Korean War.”  [Korea Times]

You can read more at the link.

As I and many have been saying for years, the Kim regime is not going to denuclearize:

Anchor: A U.S. news Web site says the Trump administration has presented North Korea with a formal timeline for starting the process of denuclearization. The report comes as the U.S. and North Korea are witnessing a stalemate in their nuclear negotiations and Washington seems to have adopted a carrot-and-stick approach towards Pyongyang.
Our Bae Joo-yon has more.

Report: U.S. news Web site Vox reported on Wednesday that Washington had proposed Pyongyang hand over 60 to 70 percent of its nuclear weapons within six to eight months, after which the U.S. or a third party would take possession of the warheads and remove them from the North.

According to the report, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo presented the plan to North Korean negotiators multiple times over the past two months, but the North’s delegation, led by senior official Kim Yong-chol, has turned down Pompeo’s proposal each time.

Vox said that “it’s unclear what concessions, if any, the U.S. would offer in exchange beyond sanctions relief or removing North Korea from the state sponsors of terrorism list.”

Given that Pyongyang has yet to disclose to Washington just how many nuclear bombs it has, it would be difficult to verify the North’s arsenal volume even if it did agree to hand over what it claims to be 60 to 70 percent of its arsenal.

One source told Vox that Pompeo’s main goal in this stage of the negotiations is solely to get Pyongyang to officially reveal how many nuclear weapons it has.  [KBS World Radio]

You can read more at the link, but I really hope I am wrong one day about this and the Kim regime decides to give up all their nuclear weapons, but judging from past history and current statements it appears to be unlikely.

What the Kim regime is willing to do is pretend to denuclearize like they did during past US presidential administrations.  They will do this to create the myth that “progress” is happening to denuclearize North Korea.  In return for pretending to denuclearize the Kim regime would want the sanctions dropped.  In such a scenario President Trump would probably get his Nobel Peace Prize for signing a pretend denuclearization agreement, the Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea could then start pumping cash into North Korea, and the Kim regime can then use the funds to hand out cash to the regime elite and further modernize the military.

Signing up to such an agreement may sound ridiculous, but remember the US has signed up for pretend denuclearization deals not once, but twice!  The first was the Agreed Framework during the Clinton administration and then the Six Party Talks deal during the Bush administration.  Will there be a third one?  Time will tell.

Jenny Jin of the U.S. Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency speaks in an interview with Yonhap in Washington on Aug. 8, 2018. The forensic scientist of Korean descent is in charge of identifying the remains of U.S. soldiers killed during the Korean War repatriated by North Korea. (Yonhap)

The Kim regime is not going to let this issue go:

North Korea reiterated its demand Thursday for the United States to agree to declare an end to the 1950-53 Korean War, saying that it would help bring in peace and create mutual trust.

Declaring an end to the Korean War is “the demand of our time” and will be the “first process” toward a peace and security guarantee, the Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Workers’ Party of Korea, said in a commentary.

The newspaper added that it is “abnormal” to see distrust and animosity going on between the North and the U.S. even now, saying that it is time to take action toward declaring an end to the war.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link, but the Kim regime wants to end the Korean War and get a peace treaty signed because then that would justify demands to withdraw USFK from the peninsula.  With the end of the US-ROK alliance the ROK and North Korea can move forward with their confederation idea which will essentially lead to unification on the Kim regime’s terms.

However, the Trump administration has made it clear that no peace treaty will be offered until real denuclearization happens.  Over the coming year I guess we will see who blinks first.

I would argue that the fact the US has to voice confidence in South Korea’s willingness to enforce sanctions on North Korea shows there is some doubt and thus they need reminding:

The United States on Wednesday voiced confidence in South Korea’s implementation of sanctions against North Korea amid reports a shipment of North Korean coal docked at a South Korean port.

U.S. broadcaster VOA reported that a Belize-flagged ship docked at South Korea’s southeastern port city of Pohang over the weekend after being spotted at the Russian port of Nakhodka with black material believed to be North Korean coal.

U.N. Security Council Resolution 2371 bans North Korean exports of coal and other mineral resources that could generate revenue for the regime’s development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. U.N. member states are also required to stop and inspect vessels suspected of engaging in illicit activities with the North.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.