It seems to me people are getting way ahead of themselves in regards to the upcoming Inter-Korean Summit ending the Korean War:
South and North Korea are discussing plans to announce an official end to the military conflict between the two countries that are still technically at war, the Munhwa Ilbo newspaper reported, citing an unidentified South Korean official.
At next week’s summit between South Korea President Moon Jae-in and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, the two neighbors may release a joint statement saying they will seek to ease military tension and to end confrontation, according to the report. [Bloomberg]
Before people get all euphoric about the end of the Korean War it is important to realize South Korea cannot negotiate an end to the Korean War because they are not a signatory to the Armistice Agreement. They will need China, the United States, and United Nations to agree to it as well. So what exactly is being negotiated?:
“We are devising and discussing various ways to develop the security situation surrounding the peninsula into a permanent peace regime,” the official said on condition of anonymity. “One such way may be changing the armistice agreement to a peace treaty, and we are reviewing the possibility of it.”
But he said South Korea alone cannot decide on ending the war as the issue requires close discussion with countries directly involved, including North Korea.
Although the armistice was signed by North Korea, China and the United Nations Command, without South Korea, the official said it is undeniable South Korea is one of the countries directly involved.
“But the two Koreas alone cannot decide on signing a peace treaty, so we may have to seek a three-party or four-party agreement if necessary.”
He noted that when Moon’s special envoys visited Pyongyang in March, Kim himself said his country would not take military action against the South.
“In the joint declaration to be announced by Moon and Kim after the summit, we want to include an agreement to ban hostilities, although it is not known yet whether we can use the term ‘end of the war,'” the official said. “However, we expect to include such an agreement in some form of expression.” [Korea Times]
That is the key term being negotiated, “a ban on hostilities”. I would be surprised if President Trump signs up for a peace treaty ending the war without verifiable denuclearization by North Korea. The Kim regime probably understands this as well. I think what the Kim regime may be trying to do is at least get an agreement to ban hostilities in order to make it more difficult for President Trump to launch a strike when they inevitably break whatever agreement they sign up for.
If the past is any indication of the future, they will break the agreement after receiving the aid they want and blame the US or ROK for its failure for some imaginary reason. The ban on hostilities could then possibly constrain the US President from responding militarily while the Kim regime continues to break the agreement. If the US does strike anyway the Kim regime can then claim that the US broke the hostility agreement and thus justify them expanding their nuclear program and taking whatever hostilities they want. In the minds of the Kim regime, they win either way.
That is what is being floated as a possible reward for denuclearization:
What would the United States give North Korea in return for denuclearization?
The Trump administration is now detailing a compensation package for the Kim Jong-un regime that would significantly boost economic and diplomatic sectors, the Dong-A Ilbo daily reported on Thursday, citing government sources.
The newspaper said if the Trump-Kim summit is a success, the U.S. is willing to open a liaison office and an embassy in Pyongyang, and start humanitarian aid.
The two countries discussed the issues during working-level talks, the paper said.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s top national security adviser is visiting Washington to meet his U.S. counterpart John Bolton, the White House said. [Korea Times via a reader tip]
Here is the first major issue the US and the North Korea need to work out:
The North Koreans, in unpublicised meetings with the Americans, are saying they want Trump to see Kim in Pyongyang. The Americans, of course, do not want Trump visiting North Korea, where Kim would be in the role of a head of state receiving the American guest as a supplicant seeking his approval.
Instead, in conversations via the CIA, the Americans are pressing for the talks to be held in the capital of a third country or in the truce village of Panmunjom on the North-South line, 60km north of Seoul. That’s where South Korean President Moon Jae-in is due to meet Kim on April 27, and the Americans see no reason why Kim cannot go to Panmunjom for his summit with Trump, tentatively agreed upon to take place in May.
The Americans see the idea of Trump going to Pyongyang as another attempt on the part of Kim and his team of strategists to create obstructions to any serious attempt at negotiating an end to the North’s nuclear programme. It might seem inconceivable that Trump would go to Pyongyang to meet Kim, but what if North Korea refused to budge?
Would the result be no summit – and North and South Korea both blaming the US for refusing to accommodate North Korea’s demands? Or would North Korea, if sincerely interested in a summit, accept other suggestions? [South China Morning Post]
You can read more at the link, but I think the North Koreans are refusing to budge from holding the summit in Pyongyang because they want to first see what the Americans have to offer. If prior negotiations show the US not willing to make the concessions they want, the Kim regime can continue to demand that Pyongyang be the location of the summit in order to kill it and then blame the Americans for its failure.
If the Kim regime does continue to demand to hold the summit at Pyongyang, then I think President Trump should fly to South Korea and visit Panmunjom and tell Kim Jong-un when he will be there to put the onus back on him for not meeting him.
I would hope that the US government is holding secret, direct talks with the North Koreans in preparation for the Kim-Trump summit. Does CNN think they should hold negotiations on the White House Facebook page?:
The United States and North Korea have been holding secret, direct talks to prepare for a summit between President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, a sign that planning for the highly anticipated meeting is progressing, several administration officials familiar with the discussions tell CNN.
Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo and a team at the CIA have been working through intelligence back-channels to make preparations for the summit, the officials said. American and North Korean intelligence officials have spoken several times and have even met in a third country, with a focus on nailing down a location for the talks. (………)
Officials said the decision to use the already existing intelligence channel was more a facet of Pompeo’s current status as CIA director as he awaits confirmation as secretary of state than a reflection of the content of the discussions. Pompeo is expected to begin the process of Senate confirmation in the next several weeks.
One of Trump’s most trusted national security advisers, Pompeo has led efforts to prepare for the summit, which Trump has pressed his aides to organize. If he confirmed, he will assume oversight of the diplomatic preparations. [CNN]
How much of Choe Sang-hun's bias is it possible to squeeze into one headline? In fact, we have plenty of leverage over N. Korea if we're willing to use it. Moon Jae-in & his lapdog, Choe, just don't want us to. https://t.co/u3jGjo9p4n
Here is an interesting immigration story involving a retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel and his adopted Korean daughter:
Retired Army Lt. Col. Patrick Schreiber is hoping his family — adopted daughter Hyebin and wife Soo Jin Schreiber — can stay in the country. Schreiber assumed he and his wife had time to adopt their Korean-immigrant niece, then 15, as their daughter. They didn’t realize that children brought into the country should be adopted before age 16 to be allowed access to U.S. citizenship.
A retired Army lieutenant colonel with six tours of duty, Patrick Schreiber says that his failure to gain an understanding of immigration law is “the greatest regret in my life.”
Because it now could mean having to move his family to South Korea next year so he, his wife and adopted daughter could stay together.
In 2013, just before he deployed to Afghanistan as a chief intelligence officer, Schreiber of Lansing, Mich. assumed he and his wife had time to adopt a Korean-immigrant niece, then 15, as their daughter. Having consulted with an adoption attorney, he thought the cut-off date to legally adopt would be her 18th birthday.
“I assumed wrong,” he says now, having adopted the girl when she was 17.
Too late, according to the government. A federal statute says that children brought into the country should be adopted before age 16 to be allowed access to U.S. citizenship.
As a result, deportation could await daughter Hyebin, a junior studying chemical engineering at the University of Kansas. [Stars & Stripes]
You can read more at the link, but it seems that US immigration laws need to have a process to apply for an exception to policy for unusual circumstances like this. With that said since she is studying chemical engineering I would be surprised if she isn’t able to get a work visa to stay in the US after graduating from college.
Hopefully this gets worked out, but even the worst case scenario of having to go back to South Korea is not that bad. It isn’t like she is going to some third world country and South Korea is where she has spent the vast majority of her life at. I have feeling this will work its self out, but I do find it interesting the difficulty this family is having trying to legally immigrate their adopted daughter to the US while the children of illegal immigrants continue to get special treatment under US immigration laws.
This may be a blueprint that we may see played again by North Korea in upcoming talks to meet their goal of separating the ROK from the US:
In the late 1980s, North Korea proposed creating a neutral state on the Korean Peninsula that could serve as a buffer zone in the region, declassified diplomatic documents showed Friday.
Then Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev delivered the North’s secret proposal to then U.S. President Ronald Reagan during their summit in Washington on Dec. 9, 1987, according to the documents disclosed by the foreign ministry.
Under the plan, the North wanted to create a federation-style republic consisting of two different governments representing the two Koreas and declare it as a neutral state that could serve as a regional buffer zone, the documents said.
The North also called for the two Koreas to sign a nonaggression treaty and replace the current armistice with a peace treaty, while suggesting the new entity would join the United Nations under a single name.
In addition, Pyongyang sought to scrap all agreements or treaties reached with third parties deemed to be running counter to their pursuit of reunification, a demand interpreted as a way to put pressure on Seoul to walk away from its mutual defense treaty with the U.S.
The North suggested the two Koreas reduce the number of their respective troops to fewer than 100,000 as a step toward building a peace mood and called for the withdrawal of any nuclear weapons and foreign troops from the peninsula, apparently targeting U.S. troops stationed in the South. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link, but this shows the Kim regime has long tried to separate the ROK from the US. Their nuclear weapons program is just the latest attempt to make this happen. Their nuclear weapons program that can threaten the US is being used as a bargaining chip to separate the US from South Korea and then seek a confederation on North Korean terms.
Japan wants conditions attached to the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un: make North Korea promise to resolve the abduction issue and abandon medium-range ballistic missiles having Japan within range https://t.co/GFQUq4fJrQ
