Tag: US-ROK Alliance

This is all an attempt by the Moon administration to deflect criticism from conservative critics in South Korea and the US:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is well aware that the United States Forces Korea (USFK) will continue to be stationed in the South despite his ongoing efforts for the regime’s denuclearization, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said in a televised New Year’s press conference, Thursday.

“Kim Jong-un clearly understands the North’s denuclearization has nothing to do with the presence of the USFK in the South, viewing its existence as part of the security alliance between Seoul and Washington,” Moon said.

The remark came amid lingering concerns that North Korea may demand the withdrawal of the USFK in the future, as it will be difficult for the South to justify U.S. troops’ continuing presence here after the possible declaration of the end to the 1950-53 Korean War.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link, but the rhetoric of ending the Korean War has been going on for months because the Kim regime wants the peace treaty in order to challenge the legitimacy of the military presence in South Korea.  If there is peace why is USFK needed?

President Moon is saying all the right things that USFK will remain after any peace treaty is signed, to include claiming Kim Jong-un understands this as well. However, this is likely just rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against a peace treaty.

Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down.  If he openly advocated for a USFK withdrawal, that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.  That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.

Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju.  President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.

A ROK Drop favorite, David Maxwell recently had this to say in The Hill about the cost sharing negotiations between the US and South Korea:

Trump seems not to recognize that the ROK makes significant contributions to its own defense. In 2017, 2.7 percent of its GDP went to defense — a higher percentage than any member of NATO except the U.S. Furthermore, the ROK’s 2018 defense budget increased by 9.9 pecent, or $40 billion, the largest in history. It has an active force of 625,000 troops with 28,000 Americans stationed in South Korea. Under the current SMA, the ROK covers half of the roughly $1.6 billion basing cost for American troops, but according to reports, Trump wants Seoul to pay 100 percent.
Yet South Korea already covers more than just annual basing costs. The recently expanded Camp Humphreys is now the largest U.S. military base outside of the continental U.S. It cost some $10.7 billion and the ROK provided 90 percent of the funds. The ROK government also agreed to a renegotiated Korea-U.S Free Trade Agreement, in response to pressure from Trump.  Finally, from 2012 through 2016 the ROK purchased $19.8 billion in U.S. military equipment through Foreign Military Sales and Direct Commercial Sales. 
It is essential for both sides to remember that the primary purpose of the alliance is to prevent war. 

The Hill

You can read more at the link.

Former ROK JCS Ops Chief, Army Lt.Gen, Shin Won-sik said "Moon Admin agreed with the NK's denuke of peninsula plan not the CVID of NK that SK can withdraw of USFK in favor of NK(DPRK) as soon as this summer." #CFC #JCS #USFK #DPRK #MOON #Trump https://t.co/WxEQSFfKGN

— Dong Yon Kim/김동연 기자 (@dongyonews) January 7, 2019

South Korea paid ~$860 million this year for USFK cost sharing. South Korean negotiators have been trying to keep cost sharing increases below the $1 billion level. The Trump administration however, wants the ROK to pay $1.2 billion instead:

But an even bigger concern is that Washington and Seoul have failed to agree on dividing the cost of keeping U.S. troops here despite 10 rounds of talks so far. The Trump administration wants to double the South Korean share, but this year South Korea already paid W960.2 billion or half of the total upkeep cost (US$1=W1,126). Trump’s demand in short comes down to asking Seoul to pay for pretty much the entire upkeep. The Wall Street Journal said Trump’s negotiators asked for a 50-percent hike or US$1.2 billion. That is a huge increase considering the fact that Seoul’s share has grown only by 2.5 to 25.7 percent each year since 1991. 
South Korean officials are reluctant to talk about the issue, which is extremely sensitive in the domestic political situation, while U.S. officials are merely saying there are “very big differences” between the two sides. There is a possibility of Trump threatening to pull U.S. troops out in order to pressure Seoul to pay more. He has been treating most diplomatic alliances from the perspective of whether they support the U.S. rather than in the traditional way of spreading the Pax Americana around the globe. 
There is no telling what Trump will do to get South Korea to pay more, nor how Seoul will react — it could end up telling the Americans to leave or stoke anti-U.S. sentiment.

Chosun Ilbo

You can read more at the link, but considering the access to advanced technology and training that the ROK receives from USFK, asking for $1.2 billion a year is a reasonable request in my opinion.

I think it is becoming very clear that if the ROK government does not pay more for the upkeep of the US-ROK alliance that it would not be surprising to see a reduction of troops in South Korea within the next two years or the removal of dependents to save money:

 South Korean and U.S. officials had significantly narrowed differences in recent negotiations over how to share the upkeep costs for American troops stationed here, but the working-level progress fell apart as the U.S. leadership rejected it, sources said Tuesday.
Seoul and Washington have held a series of talks since March over how much financial cost South Korea should bear for 28,500 troops of U.S. Forces Korea amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for a sharp rise in Seoul’s share.
Earlier this month, the two sides tried to reach a final deal on the issue during the 10th round of negotiations held in Seoul and narrowed differences to a gap of about 100 billion won, but the progress fell through as the U.S. leadership opposed the idea.
A government source said, “We are nearly back to square one.”
The two couldn’t even schedule the timing of the next round of meetings, as both apparently needed time for policy coordination and consultation within their own governments.

Yonhap

President Trump has apparently linked the reboot of cost sharing talks to the decision to replace Defense Secretary James Mattis:

On Monday, he wrote on Twitter that, “We are substantially subsidizing the Militaries of many VERY rich countries all over the world, while at the same time these countries take total advantage of the U.S., and our TAXPAYERS, on Trade. General Mattis did not see this as a problem. I DO, and it is being fixed!”
Although he didn’t pinpoint South Korea, it is understood that he directed the comment at Seoul, with which the U.S. is currently negotiating over defense costs.

You can read more at the link.

I think this whole OPCON issue, just like the US-ROK cost sharing talks are all linked back to whatever the final outcome of the US and North Korea denuclearization talks are. Depending how that plays out the OPCON and cost sharing talks will get worked out as well:

 South Korea’s defense chief on Thursday said the coming year will be a starting point for the test of the country’s ability to command its own troops in the event of a war.
Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo made the remark as he presided over a meeting to assess the preparations for the transfer of wartime operational control from the United States.
South Korea handed over operational control of its troops to the U.S.-led U.N. command during the Korean War. It retook peacetime OPCON in 1994, but wartime OPCON remains in the hands of the United States.

Yonhap

Here is an analysis piece in the Stars & Stripes about what the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis means for the US-ROK alliance:

Mattis didn’t mention South Korea, but his departure will deprive officials in Seoul of somebody they considered a voice of reason in the Trump administration. It also comes as the president’s surprise decision on Syria earlier this week underscored the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy.
“It’s certainly going to cause concern, I think, in South Korea,” said Jenny Town, a Korea specialist at the Washington, D.C.-based Stimson Center. “Mattis is one of the few people they looked to for direction and reason in an administration where it has been often difficult to decipher what our policy is and where our relationship is going.”

She noted that Trump has said he may be willing to pull troops out of South Korea to save money.
“It’s hard to see where this goes until we have a better sense of who’s coming next, but it’s also hard to see that this move is going to improve relations both with our friends or our adversaries at this point,” Town said.

[Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link, but trying to equate withdrawing troops from Syria with withdrawing USFK is quite a stretch as speculated on later in the article. The US has treaty obligations with South Korea that cannot cause a quick troops withdrawal like what is expected in Syria.

Something that could lead to a partial US troop withdrawal in South Korea it is the ongoing US-ROK cost sharing negotiations. Another possibility to save money as well as send a message to North Korea if denuclearization talks are not going well, is restricting US military dependents from South Korea:

The friction escalated in January when Trump ordered Mattis to end the practice of allowing the family members of U.S. troops stationed in South Korea to accompany them during their deployments. But Mattis, with the assistance of chief of staff John Kelly, put off implementing the directive, say one defense official and one former administration official, angering Trump.
Trump repeatedly said he wanted to sign an order changing the policy on military dependents in South Korea, but Mattis and other officials, including Kelly, tried to stall him, according to three former officials. “It was kind of like a game of tag. There were plenty of other people, in addition to Mattis, who slow-walked that,” the former official said. The order was never implemented.
“He knows that he told them to do it and they didn’t do it,” another former senior White House official said.

NBC News via a reader tip

I guess we will see how all of this plays out over the next year.

It's out of the news cycle & off most people's radar screens at the moment. But the failure to conclude the U.S.-ROK Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations is an opportunity for Trump to drop another chaos bomb & shred the U.S.-ROK alliance. Don't say I didn't warn you.

— Daniel Pinkston (@dpinkston) December 21, 2018

It seems to me that if there is no money designated to pay the employees than of course they will need to be put on leave: 

The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) has sent a letter to the union of its Korean employees stating that it will place them on unpaid leave from mid-April 2019, if the ongoing defense-cost sharing negotiations between Seoul and Washington are not settled by the end of this year.

In the letter to USFK Korean Employees Union President Choe Ung-sik, USFK headquarters’ Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Michael Minihan said, “Unfortunately, unless the ongoing SMA negotiations can be completed in a timely manner to avoid a lapse in labor funding, we will be required to issue a general furlough notice.”

“Unless a new SMA is agreed to, it will be necessary to implement the furlough effective April 15, 2019,” Minihan said.

This is viewed by some observers as an attempt to gain concessions from Korea as the negotiations over sharing the cost of stationing American troops here are making little headway. They say that the U.S. is “taking Korean workers hostage” to demand a bigger payment from the government.

Time has been running out in the negotiations in relation to the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), a five-year defense contract between Seoul and Washington. It will expire Dec. 31.

The notice may possibly affect as many as 8,700 whose wages are co-paid by both the government and the USFK.

Korea Times

You can read more at the link.

Via a reader tip comes the below video of a conference held recently by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) think tank.  The conference featured a number of ROK Drop favorites such as Dr. Tara O, Joshua Stanton from One Free Korea, David Maxwell, and Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt.  

A lot of great points were made by the speakers during the conference.  For example Dr. O points out the jailing of conservative media figures and how the ROK media is suppressing coverage of anti-Moon administration protests.  For example below is a picture of a protest that was not covered by the media.  She even discussed an example of how Kim Jong-un could become the President of South Korea if a confederation is created. 

Joshua Stanton also provided a lot of great examples of how Korean politicians have suppressed the media though it is in overdrive now.

I recommend watching the whole thing at the link.