I still believe that a final US-ROK cost sharing deal will be reached as part of the ongoing negotiations with North Korea. If Washington drops sanctions like Seoul wants than I think they will give the Trump administration the deal they want on cost sharing. I guess we will see what happens:
South Korea and the United States will resume negotiations over military cost-sharing issues in Seoul next week.
Seoul’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday the tenth round of negotiations concerning the bilateral Special Measures Agreement(SMA) will be held for three days from Tuesday, where the two sides will have in-depth discussions to coordinate stances based on the previous talks.
According to the ministry, the foreign ministers of the two countries agreed during their meeting in Washington on Thursday that they will continue to encourage the negotiators to produce mutually satisfying results. [KBS World Radio]
As I have been saying watch and see if the Key Resolve exercise get scheduled to be executed this spring:
AH-64 Apache attacker helicopters parked at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, April 1, when South Korea and the U.S. began their annual Foal Eagle joint military exercise. The allies remained low-key for this year’s field drills to reflect inter-Korean reconciliation. Yonhap
South Korea and the United States will likely suspend their joint field exercises next year amid the detente reached on the peninsula with North Korea.
Both sides are in discussions on whether to postpone their annual large-scale Foal Eagle combined tactical training exercise slated for March, but no official consensus has been reached yet.
“The military authorities may suspend major joint military exercises next year, including Foal Eagle, but nothing specific has been decided between the defense chiefs of the two countries,” a military official said Thursday without elaborating.
However, Seoul and Washing will carry out a series of computer-simulated command post exercises next year, as they do not pose a serious security threat to the North.
The two countries are known to be discussing conducting the Key Resolve computerized command post drill in March despite the possible suspension of its real time counterpart, Foal Eagle. [Korea Times]
You can read more at the link, but the fact that Key Resolve is being discussed could be a signal that the Trump administration doesn’t think the denuclearization and subsequent peace overtures are serious. This also gives the Trump administration a bargaining chip if a second Trump-Kim summit is held.
My theory on the current US-ROK cost sharing negotiations is that this will ultimately be tied to a successful second Trump-Kim summit and US dropping sanctions on North Korea. If the Trump administration drops sanctions I suspect that the Moon administration will cut a favorable US-ROK cost sharing deal to pay back President Trump. If sanctions are not dropped the Moon administration will likely continue to play hardball on this issue:
South Korea and the United States failed to reach a deal on sharing the cost of American troops stationed on the peninsula in formal negotiations last week, a government official here said Monday.
Senior diplomats of the two sides had three-day talks on the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) to set the amount of Seoul’s financial contributions for the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) in Honolulu, Hawaii. It was the ninth round of bargaining, as the existing accord, which took effect in 2014, is to expire at the end of this year.
“There was some progress, but no final agreement was reached,” the foreign ministry official told reporters on the condition of anonymity.
Differences remain over how much Seoul will pay and some other issues, although the work to draw up a joint statement moved forward in general, he added. [Yonhap]
You can read more at the link and draw your own conclusions.
Professor Sung-Yoon Lee at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University has an article published in the National Interest that hits many of the same theme I have shared on this site about any peace treaty signed with the DPRK:
Almost immediately in the wake of the signing of an end-of-war declaration, the UN Command, shorn of its mission to defend the peace in the peninsula, would be dismantled. Moreover, OPCON transfer, now envisioned to be completed by 2020, would defang and dismantle the Combined Forces Command. Why? Despite protestations to the contrary, no U.S. commander would submit his command over U.S. forces-the preeminent military in the world-to a foreign commander in the actual prosecution of war.
The joint communique of the recently concluded 50th U.S.-ROK Security Consultative Meeting (SMC) states that the two sides, following OPCON transfer, shall “maintain the current CFC structure” and that the post-OPCON transfer CFC shall “have an ROK four-star general as the Commander and a U.S. four-star general as the Deputy Commander” (Paragraph 9). It’s a proposition that sounds as credible as Richard Nixon’s promise to Park Chung-hee that no U.S. troops will be withdrawn just a year before the withdrawal of an entire division of twenty thousand soldiers.
A peace treaty between the United States and the DPRK, a long-held goal by North Korea, would call into question rationale for maintaining U.S. troops in South Korea. If and when such a treaty comes into effect, then the question “Why are the troops there, in South Korea, when the U.S. and North Korea have a peace treaty?” would be raised repeatedly by politicians and the public in Seoul and Washington, not to mention Pyongyang, Beijing, and Moscow.
Once the U.S. forces leave South Korea, the bilateral alliance will be that only in name. Beyond the loss of credible U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK, the virtual abrogation of the alliance would leave some glaring holes in the ROK’s defense capabilities, for example: Surveillance-reconnaissance-signal intelligence capabilities, early warning and missile defense, counter-battery fire and sensitive military technology procurement abilities, just to name a few. [The National Interest]
So does anyone really think a ROK general is really going to command US forces during a conflict?:
South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo, left, and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis hold up the Alliance Guiding Principles they signed at the Pentagon on Wednesday. [MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE]Seoul and Washington signed a strategic guideline on Wednesday that paves the way for a Korean-led combined defense mechanism after the transfer of wartime operational control (Opcon) from the United States.
South Korean Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo and U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis convened the 50th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Pentagon and signed the Alliance Guiding Principles to ensure a strong combined defense posture following the transfer.
The mutual guideline guarantees the continued stationing of U.S. troops in Korea and the retaining of the Combined Forces Command (CFC) and the United Nations Command after the transfer of Opcon from Washington to Seoul. It places a four-star Korean general as the head of the future CFC, with a U.S. general serving as deputy commander.
Washington further committed to a continued extension to Korea of its nuclear, conventional and missile defense deterrence capacities even after the transfer. This should quell some concerns in Seoul that the transfer of Opcon could lead to the withdrawal of some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea or the pulling back of American extended deterrence over the peninsula.
The two sides will work toward an initial operational capability (IOC) certification of a Korea-led combined defense posture next year. However, the specific timing of the Opcon transition will be determined later. [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but this to me seems to be more of creating the impression to the Washington establishment that the Moon administration wants US forces to stay in Korea while using their surrogates to make life difficult for them. Look no further then the current THAAD site in South Korea.
President Moon is pretty repeating the North Korean, Russian, and positions on the Korean peninsula:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said a “new order” was in the making on the Korean Peninsula, with a rapidly changing diplomatic dynamic surrounding North Korea.
Remarking on an expected visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Russia and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s possible reciprocal visit to Pyongyang in coming weeks, Moon said a new order was being “established on the Korean Peninsula,” which he said would pave the way for setting up a new order in Northeast Asia during a cabinet meeting at the Blue House.
“Aside from the second North-U.S. summit,” he said, “North Korean leader Kim is expected to visit Russia while Xi Jinping of China is expected to make a visit to the North. A North-Japan summit is also an open possibility.
“In other words, a new order on the Korean Peninsula is being established.”
Moon went on to say that what he described as a “new order” was a must for the two Koreas to set in place a permanent peace regime and achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” [Joong Ang Ilbo]
You can read more at the link, but the “new order” Moon is likely talking about is the confederation between North and South Korea on the Kim regime’s terms. Also notice how he says the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”. This is the same terms the North Koreans have been using. South Korea does not have nuclear weapons so the term can only mean ending the US nuclear umbrella protection of South Korea and thus the end of the US-ROK alliance.
It seems it is becoming clearer and clearer that this is the ultimate end game for the Moon administration.
The anti-US groups already demand US troop withdrawal, despite majority #SouthKoreans supporting the US presence. The protests would become feverish a la candlelights if the "end of war" is declared, & Moon will say the "candlelights" ordered him for the US military withdrawal. https://t.co/CFZ7Xg9uMI
The Moon administration’s Defense Minister nominee is advocating for an end to the Korean War:
Defense Minister nominee Jeong Kyeong-doo, chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, takes the oath before participating in his confirmation hearing at the National Assembly, Monday. / Yonhap
Defense Minister nominee Jeong Kyeong-doo said in his confirmation hearing, Monday, that the military has bolstered defense readiness ahead of the upcoming inter-Korean summit.
He also said that formally ending the Korean War should be pushed forward according to the Panmunjeom Declaration.
Jeong, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a treaty to end the war will be “a political proclamation” to pave the way for denuclearization, but this does not mean disbandment of the United Nations Command or the breakup of the South-U.S. defense alliance.
When asked about the North’s aim of seeking the end of the war for this summit, Jeong said “it was aimed at building trust between the two Koreas and North Korea and the U.S. in order to achieve the perfect denuclearization.” [Korea Times]
General Jeong is remaining on script with the rest of the Moon administration about the future of the US-ROK alliance after any end of the Korean War. The North Koreans, Chinese, Russians, and South Korean leftists all want US troops off of the peninsula. Despite claims in the media that Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in want US troops to stay after any peace deal is reached, this is just all rhetoric to prevent energizing South Korean conservatives against Moon.
Remember Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down. If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces. That is why I think the Moon administration will publicly say they support USFK staying, but will then have their surrogates do things to make life difficult for USFK.
Possibly the future of USFK after a peace treaty could look a lot like the current THAAD site in Seongju. President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence and cause the US to withdraw troops on its own accord.
This article sent to me via a reader tip is a couple of months old, but it is yet another example of what the Moon administration really want to do with the US-ROK alliance even though officially they will say something different:
Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security
A top adviser to South Korea’s president says he would eventually like to see the U.S.–South Korea alliance end. In language that sounded almost Trump-like, Chung In Moon, a special adviser to President Moon Jae In for foreign affairs and national security, said in an interview that alliances in general are a “very unnatural state of international relations” and said that, “for me, the best thing is to really get rid of alliance.” In the meantime, he says, he “strongly” supports “the continued presence of American forces” in Korea, despite hoping for an arrangement that he thinks would better serve his nation’s interests.
It was a remarkable statement coming from a South Korean official who is playing a prominent advisory role in current negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program. South Korea has relied on its U.S. alliance since the 1950s to deter threats from its north—and the fate of that partnership, which North Korea has long sought to end, has been a contentious question as a summit between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump approaches. U.S. and South Korean officials have repeatedly insisted that the alliance is not a bargaining chip with North Korea. And Moon, who presented his ideas as his personal views, was discussing the future of the alliance as a theoretical question about Asia’s security architecture, not as a matter to be determined in nuclear talks. But his comments nevertheless suggested that if those talks succeed and overhaul geopolitics on the Korean peninsula, the alliance could come due for a reckoning. [The Atlantic]
You can read much more at the link, but President Moon is a very skilled politician that needs to keep the Korean right at bay and public anxiety down. If he advocated openly for a USFK withdrawal that would give the South Korean right an issue to strongly attack him with and cause much public anxiety after decades of security guarantees provided by US forces.
However, if a peace treaty is signed to end the Korean War do not be surprised if the Moon administration allows left wing groups begin to put pressure on the US to withdraw. Think of it as a macro version of the current THAAD issue. The left wing groups have protested and sealed off the THAAD site making life difficult for the soldiers there. The Korean government could easily end the blockade, but choose not to. What if in the future if these groups are allowed to blockade and make life difficult for US personnel at for example Camp Humphreys?
President Moon will say all the right things that he supports USFK, just like he supposedly supports the THAAD site, but will set conditions to make it difficult for its continued existence.
The issue of signing a peace treaty to end the Korean War is one of the major objectives of North Korea and China to ultimately get USFK withdrawn from South Korea:
President Moon Jae-in (C) arrives at Singapore’s Changi Airport on July 11, 2018, for a three-day state visit that will include a summit with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Photo by Yonhap
South Korean President Moon Jae-in said he wants to bring a formal end to the Korean War this year.
“The goal of our government is to declare an official end of the Korean War this year, which marks the 65th anniversary of signing the truce agreement,” he said in an interview with Singaporean media The Straits Times, according to Yonhap. Moon is on a three-day state visit in Singapore.
After the three-year war, China, North Korea and the U.N. agreed to an armistice in 1953.
“It will provide a milestone to the process for permanent peace along with denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and a peace treaty between the North and South,” said Moon.
He added that his country is discussing with the U.S. and North Korea about when and how the declaration for the end of the Korean War will be announced. [UPI]
Here is what Moon had to say about the future of USFK:
Moon noted that the U.S. military presence in South Korea is irrelevant to the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea.
“South Korea and the U.S. hold a firm position on the roles and importance of U.S. Forces in Korea for sustaining peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region and the Korean peninsula,” he said.
Remember that I have long believed that President Moon cannot publicly advocate against keeping USFK in Korea post-peace treaty because that will mobilize the conservative opposition against him. However, Moon can use his surrogates to make life difficult for USFK to where the US could decide to withdraw on its own. This gets Moon and his left wing base in South Korea what they ultimately want, USFK withdrawal without getting blamed for it.
It also gives North Korea and China what they ultimately want as well, but will the North Koreans agree to denuclearization if USFK was to withdraw? I guess we will see what happens over the next year.
